Sassuolo vs Lecce – 17 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 37 Sun, May 17 · 19:45 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 11th · 49 pts · 36 played LWDWL

2–3Full time

Lecce 17th · 32 pts · 36 played LDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sassuolo were slight favourites.

Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 9 days of rest, Lecce 8 and had to travel 784 km.

Away travel784 kmRest days9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sassuolo54%

Draw26%

Lecce20%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.92

Sassuolo53%

Draw25%

Lecce22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.03

Sassuolo54%

Draw26%

Lecce20%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.88

Sassuolo47%

Draw27%

Lecce26%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.03

Sassuolo56%

Draw24%

Lecce20%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.05

Over 2.5 48% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 50

Team strength

Sassuolo

Lecce

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

41 AttackIn forecast 36

32 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Lecce

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.28 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

69% Scored inContext 47%

22% Clean sheetsContext 25%

10.58 ShotsContext 9.58

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.63

36% On target shareContext 24%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.60

67% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 7%

2.03 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.08 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.41

3.50 BlocksContext 3.49

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.09

73% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 42%

389 PassesContext 320

323 Accurate passesContext 241

83% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.56 FoulsContext 12.44

12.64 Fouls sufferedContext 14.22

2.31 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.30 ShotsContext 9.10

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

37% On target shareContext 26%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 5.70

70% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 8%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.20 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.90 BlocksContext 3.11

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

76% Save rateContext 64%

45% PossessionIn forecast 40%

395 PassesContext 289

335 Accurate passesContext 213

85% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.60 FoulsContext 12.90

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km471 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel784 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 May	8Serie A 2025-2026, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	784 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	471 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13S. Turati(G)

23U. Garcia 80T. Muharemović 66Pedro Felipe 25W. Coulibaly

90I. Koné 18N. Matić 42K. Thorstvedt

45A. Laurienté 8M. Nzola 10D. Berardi

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

79Oumar Ngom 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 29L. Coulibaly 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+0.6 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Lecce+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 1.61points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 9-2-7
Scored: 1.28
Conceded: 1.28

Lecce · Away 0.83points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-11
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Lecce
Torino	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
AC Milan	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Fiorentina	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Como	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H
Genoa	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
Juventus	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Bologna	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Lazio	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Atalanta	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A	L 0–3 HL 1–4 A
Verona	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Udinese	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A
Inter	L 0–5 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Pisa	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H
Cremonese	W 1–0 HL 2–3 A	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Napoli	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Parma	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Points	48 of 105 · 1.37 per game	31 of 105 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Sassuolo wins2 draws1 Lecce wins

Goals per game0.60 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 40%

18 Oct 2025Lecce0–0Sassuolo
21 Apr 2024Sassuolo0–3Lecce
6 Oct 2023Lecce1–1Sassuolo
25 Feb 2023Lecce0–1Sassuolo
20 Aug 2022Sassuolo1–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	0.67
Conceded per game	1.28	1.33
Match goals	2.50	2.00	2.58
Over 1.5	75%	61%
Over 2.5	56%	36%	48%
Over 3.5	19%	11%
Both teams scored	53%	36%	49%
Clean sheets	22%	25%
Failed to score	31%	53%
Games	36	36

	Sassuolo	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.50
Match goals	2.30	2.20	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.72	4.09
Corners conceded	4.81	5.46
Match total	8.53	9.55	8.69
Over 8.5	56% 20/36	66% 23/35
Over 9.5	42% 15/36	54% 19/35
Over 10.5	28% 10/36	40% 14/35
Cards
Cards	2.44	1.75
Opponent cards	2.00	1.61
Match total	4.44	3.36	3.86
Over 3.5	64% 23/36	44% 16/36
Over 4.5	42% 15/36	28% 10/36

	Sassuolo	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.30
Corners conceded	5.50	5.40
Match total	9.50	8.70	8.69
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.70
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	4.70	3.40	3.86
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.68

Red cards0.16league 0.19

Cards 5+40%league 34%

Fouls26.1league 24.7

Penalties0.28league 0.28

Home wins40%league 39%

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W9 Mar 24H · Frosinone1–03

Lecce4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

L6 Apr 26H · Atalanta0–30
D27 Apr 25A · Atalanta1–11
D27 Nov 23A · Verona2–22
L21 Jan 23A · Verona0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.