Sassuolo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sassuolo15.0%fair odds 6.68
Draw22.4%fair odds 4.46
Napoli62.6%fair odds 1.60
Expected goals0.83 – 1.93total 2.76
Likeliest score0–211.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sassuolo ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sassuolo goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.8%8.50
- 0–111.7%8.57
- 1–110.7%9.35
- 1–29.8%10.22
- 0–37.6%13.23
- 0–06.9%14.56
- 1–36.3%15.90
- 1–04.7%21.15
- 2–14.2%23.68
- 2–24.1%24.56
Winning margin
1.1%
Sassuolo by 3+
fair 91.08
3.6%
Sassuolo by 2
fair 27.60
10.2%
Sassuolo by 1
fair 9.76
22.4%
Draw
fair 4.46
24.4%
Napoli by 1
fair 4.09
19.5%
Napoli by 2
fair 5.14
18.7%
Napoli by 3+
fair 5.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Sassuolo goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Napoli goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 15.0% | 15.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 21.5% | +0.9 pp |
| Napoli win | 62.6% | 63.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 56.0% | -3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.8% | 51.8% | -3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Sassuolo | 0.83 | 0.89 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.93 | 2.03 | -0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sassuolo win15.0%6.68
- Draw22.4%4.46
- Napoli win62.6%1.60
- Double chance Sassuolo or draw37.4%2.67
- Double chance Sassuolo or Napoli77.6%1.29
- Double chance Napoli or draw85.0%1.18
- Draw no bet Sassuolo19.3%5.18
- Draw no bet Napoli80.7%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.7%1.30
- Over 2.552.1%1.92
- Over 3.529.9%3.34
- Over 4.514.6%6.84
- Under 1.523.3%4.30
- Under 2.547.9%2.09
- Under 3.570.1%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes48.8%2.05
- No51.2%1.95
- Yes and over 2.538.1%2.62
- Sassuolo win and yes7.3%13.72
- Draw and yes15.6%6.42
- Napoli win and yes25.9%3.85
Team goals
- Sassuolo over 0.556.5%1.77
- Sassuolo over 1.520.3%4.93
- Sassuolo over 2.55.2%19.19
- Napoli over 0.585.5%1.17
- Napoli over 1.557.4%1.74
- Napoli over 2.530.4%3.29
- Sassuolo clean sheet14.5%6.88
- Napoli clean sheet43.5%2.30
- Sassuolo win to nil7.7%13.03
- Napoli win to nil36.7%2.73
Handicap
- Sassuolo −1.54.7%21.18
- Sassuolo −2.51.1%91.08
- Napoli +1.595.3%1.05
- Napoli +2.598.9%1.01
- Napoli −1.538.2%2.62
- Sassuolo +1.561.8%1.62
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.