Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 20). Sassuolo had ? days of rest, Napoli ? and had to travel 520 km.
Away travel520 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Sassuolo15%
Draw22%
Napoli63%
Sassuolo15%
Draw22%
Napoli63%
Sassuolo15%
Draw23%
Napoli62%
Sassuolo11%
Draw19%
Napoli70%
Sassuolo15%
Draw22%
Napoli63%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 42
Team strength
Sassuolo
Napoli
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
41
AttackIn forecast
61
32
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloNapoli
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.30
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
37%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
61%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.40
12.90
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
3.50
BlocksContext
2.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
57%
Save rateContext
81%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
343
PassesContext
493
260
Accurate passesContext
427
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.17
10.60
FoulsContext
10.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel520 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 520 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
13S. Turati(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
19F. Romagna
6S. Walukiewicz
11D. Boloca
35L. Lipani
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
17M. Olivera
5Juan Jesus
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
68S. Lobotka
8S. McTominay
11K. De Bruyne
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
27L. Lucca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Napoli+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
No home games yet this season.
Napoli · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Sassuolo wins1 draws5 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 28 Feb 2024Sassuolo1–6Napoli
- 27 Aug 2023Napoli2–0Sassuolo
- 17 Feb 2023Sassuolo0–2Napoli
- 29 Oct 2022Napoli4–0Sassuolo
- 30 Apr 2022Napoli6–1Sassuolo
- 1 Dec 2021Sassuolo2–2Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Sassuolo | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 49% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Sassuolo | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.11 | |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.40 | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.60
Red cards0.29
Cards 5+79%
Fouls27.7
Penalties0.17
Home wins40%
Sassuolo2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Nov 22H · AS Roma1–15
- D30 Aug 22H · AC Milan0–05
Napoli4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D24 Sep 23A · Bologna0–05
- W25 Feb 23A · Empoli2–02
- W12 Nov 22H · Udinese3–22
- D7 Nov 21H · Verona1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SassuoloNapoliSassuolo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
7
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
3
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
