Sassuolo vs Verona – 20 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 26 Fri, Feb 20 · 19:45 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 10th · 32 pts · 25 played LWWLW

3–0Full time

Verona 20th · 15 pts · 25 played DLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sassuolo were slight favourites.

Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 5.3 days of rest, Verona 5.2 and had to travel 87 km.

Away travel87 kmRest days5.3 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sassuolo59%

Draw25%

Verona16%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.78

Sassuolo54%

Draw25%

Verona22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Sassuolo57%

Draw26%

Verona17%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.79

Sassuolo52%

Draw27%

Verona21%

Expected goals 1.51 – 0.87

Sassuolo61%

Draw23%

Verona16%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.89

Over 2.5 45% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 58

Team strength

Sassuolo

Verona

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

41 AttackIn forecast 15

32 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Verona

1.16 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.76

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

64% Scored inContext 52%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 10.44

3.76 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 37%

6.96 Shots in the boxContext 6.08

65% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.23 OffsidesContext 2.26

13.72 Shots allowedContext 13.72

5.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

3.24 BlocksContext 4.32

3.87 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.92

71% Save rateContext 63%

45% PossessionIn forecast 40%

386 PassesContext 326

317 Accurate passesContext 242

82% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.64

11.92 FoulsContext 15.44

13.36 Fouls sufferedContext 8.88

2.28 Yellow cardsContext 2.12

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 0.67

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

50% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 8.10

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

32% On target shareContext 33%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 4.20

67% Box shareContext 49%

7% ConversionContext 7%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.17

14.80 Shots allowedContext 14.90

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.50 BlocksContext 4.40

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

70% Save rateContext 55%

45% PossessionIn forecast 42%

392 PassesContext 355

323 Accurate passesContext 271

82% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.58

11.20 FoulsContext 12.80

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km509 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel87 km177 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb	5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	87 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	509 km	177 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

23U. Garcia 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz 25W. Coulibaly

90I. Koné 35L. Lipani 42K. Thorstvedt

45A. Laurienté 99A. Pinamonti 10D. Berardi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson 5A. Edmundsson

3M. Frese 21A. Harroui 73Al Musrati 36C. Niasse 12D. Bradarić

9A. Sarr 18K. Bowie

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+1.7 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Verona-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 1.17points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.58

Verona · Away 0.62points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-7
Scored: 0.62
Conceded: 1.85

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Verona
Udinese	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A
Inter	L 0–5 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Pisa	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 HL 2–3 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Napoli	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Juventus	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 H
Parma	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Bologna	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 H
Torino	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 H
AC Milan	D 2–2 A	L 0–3 A
Fiorentina	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 A
Como	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 A
Atalanta	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 H
Genoa	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 A	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H
Lecce	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Lazio	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Points	29 of 72 · 1.21 per game	15 of 72 · 0.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Sassuolo wins0 draws3 Verona wins

Goals per game1.71 – 1.57 Over 2.571% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 14%

3 Oct 2025Verona0–1Sassuolo
3 Mar 2024Verona1–0Sassuolo
1 Sep 2023Sassuolo3–1Verona
8 Apr 2023Verona2–1Sassuolo
24 Oct 2022Sassuolo2–1Verona
16 Jan 2022Sassuolo2–4Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.16	0.76
Conceded per game	1.40	1.72
Match goals	2.56	2.48	2.47
Over 1.5	72%	72%
Over 2.5	52%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	28%	32%
Both teams scored	48%	52%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	36%	48%
Games	25	25

	Sassuolo	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.60
Conceded per game	1.60	2.10
Match goals	2.40	2.70	2.47
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	50%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.52	3.79
Corners conceded	4.60	4.75
Match total	8.12	8.54	8.76
Over 8.5	52% 13/25	58% 14/24
Over 9.5	36% 9/25	38% 9/24
Over 10.5	16% 4/25	25% 6/24
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.20
Opponent cards	1.92	1.60
Match total	4.32	3.80	3.98
Over 3.5	64% 16/25	48% 12/25
Over 4.5	36% 9/25	36% 9/25

	Sassuolo	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	3.78
Corners conceded	4.70	5.22
Match total	8.40	9.00	8.76
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.40
Opponent cards	1.60	1.20
Match total	3.80	2.60	3.98
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.80

Red cards0.21league 0.19

Cards 5+41%league 37%

Fouls23.6league 25.4

Penalties0.31league 0.32

Home wins43%league 37%

Sassuolo2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Sep 25A · Inter1–21
L30 Dec 23A · AC Milan0–11

Verona5 with this referee

Record1-0-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L20 Dec 24H · AC Milan0–11
L20 Sep 24H · Torino2–34
L12 May 24H · Torino1–24
L9 Apr 22A · Inter0–20
W30 Oct 21H · Juventus2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.