SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 26). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 3 days of rest, Alverca 8.1 and had to travel 300 km.
Away travel300 kmRest days3 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
SC Braga68%
Draw20%
Alverca12%
SC Braga67%
Draw20%
Alverca13%
SC Braga68%
Draw20%
Alverca12%
SC Braga61%
Draw23%
Alverca16%
SC Braga68%
Draw20%
Alverca13%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 14
Team strength
SC Braga
Alverca
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
42
AttackIn forecast
38
59
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaAlverca
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
83%
Scored inContext
72%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
12.72
ShotsContext
9.17
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
39%
On target shareContext
39%
8.59
Shots in the boxContext
6.18
66%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.11
Shots allowedContext
12.94
3.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.33
BlocksContext
3.94
2.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
68%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
599
PassesContext
356
523
Accurate passesContext
287
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.83
FoulsContext
12.61
12.72
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
90%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
9.60
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
38%
On target shareContext
37%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
73%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.80
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
2.13
BlocksContext
4.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
79%
Save rateContext
63%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
587
PassesContext
368
513
Accurate passesContext
300
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.20
FoulsContext
11.90
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Alverca
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel300 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 237 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
6Vitor Carvalho
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
18Pau Víctor
10R. Zalazar
21Ricardo Horta
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
18Lincoln
91Sandro Lima
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.88
Alverca · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nacional | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 51 · 1.59 per game | 23 of 51 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 SC Braga wins0 draws0 Alverca wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Alverca0–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.61 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| SC Braga | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.06 | 4.23 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 8.00 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 6/16 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 5/16 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.72 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 5.06 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 15/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| SC Braga | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 8.26 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.30 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 4.99
Red cards0.07league 0.29
Cards 5+43%league 59%
Fouls28.2league 27.3
Penalties0.21league 0.46
Home wins43%league 39%
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga18 games · scored 32 · conceded 18
6
2
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Alverca18 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
