SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. SC Braga had 4 days of rest, Arouca 6 and had to travel 71 km.
Away travel71 kmRest days4 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
SC Braga61%
Draw23%
Arouca17%
SC Braga66%
Draw20%
Arouca13%
SC Braga61%
Draw23%
Arouca17%
SC Braga53%
Draw25%
Arouca22%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Arouca17%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 19
Team strength
SC Braga
Arouca
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
28
59
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaArouca
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.04
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
89%
Scored inContext
71%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.11
ShotsContext
10.11
5.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
42%
On target shareContext
34%
8.48
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
68%
Box shareContext
59%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.18
8.67
Shots allowedContext
13.14
3.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.81
2.54
BlocksContext
3.96
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
71%
Save rateContext
59%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
590
PassesContext
397
517
Accurate passesContext
328
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.52
FoulsContext
13.39
11.74
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.61
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.90
ShotsContext
11.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
46%
On target shareContext
41%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
74%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.22
BlocksContext
4.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
551
PassesContext
392
481
Accurate passesContext
325
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.40
FoulsContext
12.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km39 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel71 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 8 Apr | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 71 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 39 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
6Vitor Carvalho
17Gabriel Moscardo
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
34D. Tıknaz
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
20M. Dorgeles
39Fran Navarro
Arouca
Confirmed XI
30J. Vinarčík(G)
7N. Djouahra
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
14Lee Hyun-Ju
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
10Pablo Gozálbez
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 2.15
- Conceded
- 1.00
Arouca · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-8
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Sporting CP | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H |
| AVS | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Alverca | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Estrela | D 3–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Estoril | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 46 of 78 · 1.77 per game | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 SC Braga wins0 draws1 Arouca wins
Goals per game2.43 – 0.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 14%
- 1 Dec 2025Arouca0–4SC Braga
- 29 Mar 2025SC Braga2–1Arouca
- 3 Nov 2024Arouca1–2SC Braga
- 6 Apr 2024SC Braga0–3Arouca
- 12 Nov 2023Arouca0–1SC Braga
- 19 Feb 2023SC Braga2–0Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.04 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.36 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 68% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 54% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 29% | |
| Games | 27 | 28 |
| SC Braga | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.09 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 8.74 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 10/23 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 8/23 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 5.46 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 19/27 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 14/27 | 61% 17/28 | |
| SC Braga | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.78 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.00 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.50 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.79league 4.80
Red cards0.21league 0.25
Cards 5+47%league 57%
Fouls28.6league 26.9
Penalties0.32league 0.42
Home wins32%league 41%
SC Braga4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L14 Feb 26A · GIL Vicente1–21
- W6 Dec 25A · Famalicao2–13
- D5 Oct 25A · Sporting CP1–15
- W10 Aug 25H · Tondela3–01
Arouca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Nov 25A · Estoril3–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga27 games · scored 54 · conceded 27
9
2
0-15
13
7
16-30
10
7
31-45
6
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
11
4
76-90
Arouca27 games · scored 37 · conceded 52
8
7
0-15
1
7
16-30
7
13
31-45
9
8
46-60
10
5
61-75
2
12
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
