SC Braga vs Famalicao – 19 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 30 Sun, Apr 19 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 4th · 52 pts · 28 played WDLWW

2–2Full time

Famalicao 5th · 47 pts · 29 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Famalicao. SC Braga had 3 days of rest, Famalicao 9 and had to travel 18 km.

Away travel18 kmRest days3 · 9Matches / 14d3 · 1

SC Braga53%

Draw26%

Famalicao21%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.90

SC Braga60%

Draw23%

Famalicao17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.93

SC Braga53%

Draw26%

Famalicao21%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.90

SC Braga46%

Draw28%

Famalicao26%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.01

SC Braga53%

Draw26%

Famalicao21%

Expected goals 1.61 – 0.92

Over 2.5 46% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 15

Team strength

SC Braga

Famalicao

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

42 AttackIn forecast 24

59 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Famalicao

1.96 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.24

0.96 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

89% Scored inContext 72%

39% Clean sheetsContext 48%

11.89 ShotsContext 12.21

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

41% On target shareContext 34%

8.27 Shots in the boxContext 8.36

67% Box shareContext 66%

17% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.68 Shots allowedContext 10.45

3.07 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.56 BlocksContext 2.61

2.28 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

71% Save rateContext 80%

63% PossessionIn forecast 52%

592 PassesContext 395

519 Accurate passesContext 323

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.43 FoulsContext 15.93

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 16.48

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 2.52

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 28 and 29 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.60 ShotsContext 12.00

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

51% On target shareContext 37%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

75% Box shareContext 64%

22% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.30 Shots allowedContext 10.60

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.00 BlocksContext 2.70

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

69% Save rateContext 78%

59% PossessionIn forecast 53%

552 PassesContext 414

481 Accurate passesContext 344

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.80 FoulsContext 13.10

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 17.20

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,018 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel18 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr	9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	18 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,018 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

17Gabriel Moscardo 6Vitor Carvalho 14G. Lagerbielke

5Leonardo Lelo 27F. Grillitsch 8João Moutinho 2Víctor Gómez

21Ricardo Horta 18Pau Víctor

39Fran Navarro

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi 80Pedro Santos

7Sorriso 12S. Elisor 23Gil Dias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 1.93points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 8-3-3
Scored: 2.07
Conceded: 0.93

Famalicao · Away 1.43points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-4
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 1.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	SC Braga	Famalicao
Arouca	W 1–0 HW 4–0 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
FC Porto	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Sporting CP	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Nacional	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Guimaraes	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H
Rio Ave	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
AVS	W 4–0 AD 2–2 H	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Alverca	W 5–0 HW 3–0 A	L 0–1 A
Tondela	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Estrela	D 3–3 A	L 2–3 H
Benfica	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Estoril	L 0–1 A	W 4–0 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Casa Pia	W 4–0 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Points	49 of 81 · 1.81 per game	47 of 84 · 1.68 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 SC Braga wins2 draws1 Famalicao wins

Goals per game2.29 – 1.29 Over 2.586% Both scored86% Clean sheets14% · 0%

6 Dec 2025Famalicao1–2SC Braga
25 Apr 2025Famalicao1–1SC Braga
16 Dec 2024SC Braga3–3Famalicao
18 Jan 2024Famalicao1–2SC Braga
11 Aug 2023SC Braga1–2Famalicao
5 Feb 2023SC Braga4–1Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.96	1.24
Conceded per game	0.96	0.86
Match goals	2.93	2.10	2.51
Over 1.5	75%	55%
Over 2.5	68%	38%	46%
Over 3.5	36%	21%
Both teams scored	50%	34%	48%
Clean sheets	39%	48%
Failed to score	11%	28%
Games	28	29

	SC Braga	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.30	2.51
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.58	4.86
Corners conceded	3.17	4.93
Match total	8.75	9.79	9.35
Over 8.5	46% 11/24	61% 17/28
Over 9.5	38% 9/24	46% 13/28
Over 10.5	38% 9/24	43% 12/28
Cards
Cards	2.04	2.59
Opponent cards	2.46	2.41
Match total	4.50	5.00	5.05
Over 3.5	71% 20/28	69% 20/29
Over 4.5	50% 14/28	55% 16/29

	SC Braga	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	4.67
Corners conceded	3.22	4.78
Match total	8.66	9.45	9.35
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.80
Match total	5.40	5.30	5.05
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.07league 4.78

Red cards0.27league 0.24

Cards 5+87%league 57%

Fouls30.0league 26.9

Penalties0.27league 0.43

Home wins53%league 41%

SC Braga1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L19 Dec 25A · Estoril0–12

Famalicao2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L15 Feb 26A · Sporting CP0–12
D29 Nov 25A · Moreirense2–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.