SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 64). SC Braga had 4.2 days of rest, FC Porto 3 and had to travel 47 km.
Away travel47 kmRest days4.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
SC Braga33%
Draw29%
FC Porto38%
SC Braga33%
Draw27%
FC Porto40%
SC Braga33%
Draw29%
FC Porto38%
SC Braga27%
Draw28%
FC Porto45%
SC Braga33%
Draw29%
FC Porto39%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 76
Team strength
SC Braga
FC Porto
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
42
AttackIn forecast
74
59
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaFC Porto
2.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.38
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
88%
Scored inContext
96%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
69%
12.52
ShotsContext
14.12
5.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.42
41%
On target shareContext
38%
8.74
Shots in the boxContext
9.46
67%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.21
8.52
Shots allowedContext
9.19
3.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
2.50
BlocksContext
3.52
2.41
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
72%
Save rateContext
89%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
594
PassesContext
450
521
Accurate passesContext
382
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.48
FoulsContext
13.31
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
12.08
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
+0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
80%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
12.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
45%
On target shareContext
37%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
71%
Box shareContext
61%
22%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.10
8.80
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.38
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
71%
Save rateContext
83%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
565
PassesContext
401
493
Accurate passesContext
333
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.40
FoulsContext
12.20
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,524 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
FC Porto
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel47 km3,262 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 33 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 18 Mar | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 47 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,524 km | 3,262 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
4S. Niakaté
14G. Lagerbielke
50D. Rodrigues
27F. Grillitsch
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
18Pau Víctor
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.92
FC Porto · Away
2.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-1
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 0.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| AVS | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Alverca | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Estrela | D 3–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Benfica | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Estoril | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 46 of 72 · 1.92 per game | 66 of 75 · 2.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 SC Braga wins1 draws5 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.57 – 1.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 43%
- 2 Nov 2025FC Porto2–1SC Braga
- 8 Mar 2025SC Braga1–0FC Porto
- 6 Oct 2024FC Porto2–1SC Braga
- 18 May 2024SC Braga0–1FC Porto
- 14 Jan 2024FC Porto2–0SC Braga
- 19 Mar 2023SC Braga0–0FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.08 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.38 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 54% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 31% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 69% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 4% | |
| Games | 25 | 26 |
| SC Braga | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.35 | |
| Match total | 8.52 | 8.52 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 22% 5/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.07 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 13/25 | 58% 15/26 | |
| SC Braga | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.25 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 8.66 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.10 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.99league 4.80
Red cards0.43league 0.26
Cards 5+57%league 58%
Fouls27.7league 27.0
Penalties0.34league 0.43
Home wins61%league 41%
SC Braga8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D20 Sep 25A · Guimaraes1–13
- D3 May 25H · Santa Clara1–10
- W9 Feb 25H · GIL Vicente2–00
- W1 Dec 24A · AVS1–01
- W18 Aug 24A · Boavista1–01
FC Porto8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds4
- W26 Jan 26H · GIL Vicente3–02
- W11 Aug 25H · Guimaraes3–01
- D24 Feb 25H · Guimaraes1–12
- L30 Mar 24A · Estoril0–110
- D3 Feb 24H · Rio Ave0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga25 games · scored 52 · conceded 25
9
2
0-15
12
7
16-30
10
7
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
11
3
76-90
FC Porto26 games · scored 52 · conceded 10
8
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
11
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
10
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
5
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
6
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
