SC Braga vs Feyenoord – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:00 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga

1–0Full time

Feyenoord

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. SC Braga had 4 days of rest, Feyenoord 3.2 and had to travel 1,511 km.

Away travel1,511 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 3

SC Braga42%

Draw26%

Feyenoord32%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.33

SC Braga40%

Draw27%

Feyenoord33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

SC Braga42%

Draw26%

Feyenoord32%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.33

SC Braga34%

Draw26%

Feyenoord40%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.49

SC Braga40%

Draw27%

Feyenoord33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · MontenegroNikola Dabanovic

Cards per match 2.5
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 4

Team strength

SC Braga

Feyenoord

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

42 AttackIn forecast 76

59 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Feyenoord

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.75 ShotsContext 16.60

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

44% On target shareContext 34%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

60% Box shareContext 71%

17% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.40

6.50 Shots allowedContext 8.20

2.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13

1.67 BlocksContext 2.56

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.75

77% Save rateContext 56%

67% PossessionIn forecast 53%

603 PassesContext 419

527 Accurate passesContext 348

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.08

9.75 FoulsContext 10.30

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km32 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,511 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	3.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,511 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	32 km	162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26B. Arrey-Mbi 4S. Niakaté 14G. Lagerbielke

5Leonardo Lelo 8João Moutinho 17Gabriel Moscardo 2Víctor Gómez

21Ricardo Horta 10R. Zalazar

9A. El Ouazzani

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

5G. Smal 31Malcolm Jeng 21A. Ahmedhodžić 2B. Nieuwkoop

8Q. Timber 28O. Targhalline

27G. Diarra 14S. Steijn 11Gonçalo Borges

17C. Tengstedt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Feyenoord+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home No home games yet this season.

Feyenoord · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.87
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	SC Braga	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	2.33
Conceded per game	1.00	0.67
Match goals	2.83	3.00	2.87
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	58%
Clean sheets	33%	67%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	SC Braga	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.83	6.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.56
Match total	8.83	9.56	9.50
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	1.20
Match total	3.70	2.80	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nikola Dabanovic Montenegro · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.50league 4.50

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+25%league 50%

Fouls19.0league 32.0

Penalties0.00league 0.00

Home wins75%league 50%

SC Braga

No previous matches with this referee.

Feyenoord

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.