SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 33). SC Braga usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 3 days of rest, Moreirense 7.1 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days3 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Moreirense17%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Moreirense17%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Moreirense17%
SC Braga53%
Draw25%
Moreirense22%
SC Braga60%
Draw23%
Moreirense17%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 85
Team strength
SC Braga
Moreirense
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
42
AttackIn forecast
17
59
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaMoreirense
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
8.90
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
41%
On target shareContext
36%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
58%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.86
8.20
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.22
BlocksContext
3.67
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
73%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
594
PassesContext
385
515
Accurate passesContext
317
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.10
FoulsContext
14.10
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
8.90
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
60%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.86
8.90
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.63
BlocksContext
3.67
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
73%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
535
PassesContext
385
456
Accurate passesContext
317
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.10
FoulsContext
14.10
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km95 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Moreirense
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel20 km103 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 95 km | 103 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 18 | 19.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
4S. Niakaté
14G. Lagerbielke
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
20M. Dorgeles
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
39Fran Navarro
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
27Kiko
20Benny
8M. Stjepanović
2Diogo Travassos
78Landerson
95Guilherme Schettine
11Alan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.80
Moreirense · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Nacional | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Alverca | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 24 · 1.13 per game | 12 of 24 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 SC Braga wins0 draws0 Moreirense wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 3 Feb 2025Moreirense1–2SC Braga
- 25 Aug 2024SC Braga3–1Moreirense
- 4 Feb 2024SC Braga1–0Moreirense
- 9 Sep 2023Moreirense2–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| SC Braga | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.78 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.90 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| SC Braga | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.78 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.90 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 5.21
Red cards0.20league 0.28
Cards 5+46%league 65%
Fouls26.2league 27.8
Penalties0.26league 0.47
Home wins42%league 35%
SC Braga8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W19 Apr 25A · Estoril2–00
- L6 Oct 24A · FC Porto1–22
- L27 Apr 24A · Benfica1–34
- W4 Feb 24H · Moreirense1–01
- D6 Jan 24H · Guimaraes1–12
Moreirense3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W23 Aug 25H · Guimaraes2–05
- W15 Feb 25H · Casa Pia3–23
- L4 Feb 24A · SC Braga0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
4
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
