SC Braga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Braga30.9%fair odds 3.23
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.78
Sporting CP42.6%fair odds 2.35
Expected goals1.26 – 1.51total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Braga ↓ · Sporting CP → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Braga goals, columns Sporting CP goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.97
- 1–29.0%11.09
- 0–18.8%11.31
- 2–17.5%13.36
- 1–07.2%13.83
- 0–27.2%13.94
- 0–06.9%14.53
- 2–25.7%17.63
- 2–04.9%20.23
- 1–34.6%21.95
Winning margin
4.5%
SC Braga by 3+
fair 22.29
8.9%
SC Braga by 2
fair 11.20
17.5%
SC Braga by 1
fair 5.71
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.78
21.2%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.71
13.0%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 7.71
8.4%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 11.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
SC Braga goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Sporting CP goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga win | 30.9% | 30.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Sporting CP win | 42.6% | 42.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 48.9% | +3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.5% | 53.7% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals SC Braga | 1.26 | 1.19 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 1.51 | 1.44 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Braga win30.9%3.23
- Draw26.4%3.78
- Sporting CP win42.6%2.35
- Double chance SC Braga or draw57.4%1.74
- Double chance SC Braga or Sporting CP73.6%1.36
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw69.1%1.45
- Draw no bet SC Braga42.0%2.38
- Draw no bet Sporting CP58.0%1.73
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.4%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.31
- Over 4.514.8%6.76
- Under 1.523.0%4.36
- Under 2.547.6%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.5%1.77
- No43.5%2.30
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- SC Braga win and yes15.8%6.32
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Sporting CP win and yes21.1%4.75
Team goals
- SC Braga over 0.571.6%1.40
- SC Braga over 1.535.8%2.79
- SC Braga over 2.513.3%7.51
- Sporting CP over 0.578.0%1.28
- Sporting CP over 1.544.7%2.24
- Sporting CP over 2.519.5%5.13
- SC Braga clean sheet22.0%4.55
- Sporting CP clean sheet28.4%3.52
- SC Braga win to nil15.1%6.62
- Sporting CP win to nil21.6%4.64
Handicap
- SC Braga −1.513.4%7.45
- SC Braga −2.54.5%22.29
- Sporting CP +1.586.6%1.15
- Sporting CP +2.595.5%1.05
- Sporting CP −1.521.4%4.67
- SC Braga +1.578.6%1.27
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored63
Favourite won49.2%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.572
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right47.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.3% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 44.5% | 15.4% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 53.4% | 52.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.0% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 75.0% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 29 of 63 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6057 | 0.6174 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 44.8% | 41.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 29 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 63 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.