SC Braga vs Sporting CP – 9 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 8 Fri, Oct 9 · 20:15 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 6th · 11 pts · 6 played WWLWD

1–3Full time

Sporting CP 3rd · 15 pts · 7 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were slight favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Braga. SC Braga had 19.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 20 and had to travel 320 km.

Away travel320 kmRest days19.1 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0

SC Braga32%

Draw25%

Sporting CP43%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.51

SC Braga30%

Draw25%

Sporting CP45%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.51

SC Braga32%

Draw25%

Sporting CP43%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.51

SC Braga25%

Draw24%

Sporting CP51%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.70

SC Braga31%

Draw26%

Sporting CP43%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.44

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

RefereeJoao Pinheiro

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 11

Team strength

SC Braga

Sporting CP

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

42 AttackIn forecast 75

59 DefenceIn forecast 81

60 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Sporting CP

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.43

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

0.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

83% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.00 ShotsContext 13.00

4.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86

35% On target shareContext 45%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.43

62% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 19%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.33 Shots allowedContext 8.43

2.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.50 BlocksContext 1.50

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

64% Save rateContext 72%

60% PossessionIn forecast 60%

578 PassesContext 564

492 Accurate passesContext 502

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.00

13.67 FoulsContext 11.71

13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.71

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 6 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.93

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.30 ShotsContext 12.80

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

34% On target shareContext 42%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

58% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 21%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.80 Shots allowedContext 9.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.78

3.22 BlocksContext 1.67

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

66% Save rateContext 76%

56% PossessionIn forecast 59%

529 PassesContext 541

448 Accurate passesContext 481

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.90 FoulsContext 11.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga WWLWD

Rest19.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 60 · 10 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

D20 SepA · Santa Clara0–01.5 xPts
W14 SepH · Estoril1–02.1 xPts
L10 SepA · Estrela1–21.8 xPts
W5 SepA · Alverca2–11.8 xPts
W31 AugH · Guimaraes1–01.9 xPts

Sporting CP WWWDD

Rest20 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel320 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

D19 SepH · Arouca2–22.4 xPts
D13 SepA · Famalicao1–11.9 xPts
W9 SepH · Galatasaray3–11.8 xPts
W5 SepH · Nacional2–02.6 xPts
W28 AugA · Rio Ave4–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	19.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep	20Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	320 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	10	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

44A. Bajrami 6Vitor Carvalho 22Sergio Barcia

11Gabriel Silva 8João Moutinho 29J. Gorby 2Víctor Gómez

21Ricardo Horta 23D. Huseinbašić

10Pau Víctor

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Rui Silva(G)

13G. Vagiannidis 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda

77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira 4S. Andersen

19N. Irankunda 7F. Ioannidis 10Geny Catamo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Sporting CP · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	SC Braga	Sporting CP
Estrela	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Alverca	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
Guimaraes	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 SC Braga wins5 draws3 Sporting CP wins

Goals per game1.25 – 2.75 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

7 Mar 2026SC Braga2–2Sporting CP
5 Oct 2025Sporting CP1–1SC Braga
7 Apr 2025Sporting CP1–1SC Braga
10 Nov 2024SC Braga2–4Sporting CP
11 Feb 2024Sporting CP5–0SC Braga
3 Sep 2023SC Braga1–1Sporting CP

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	2.43
Conceded per game	0.83	1.14
Match goals	2.00	3.57	2.77
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	71%	52%
Over 3.5	17%	71%
Both teams scored	50%	71%	56%
Clean sheets	50%	29%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	6	7

	SC Braga	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.70
Conceded per game	1.30	1.00
Match goals	2.60	3.70	2.77
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	70%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.17	3.83
Corners conceded	3.33	3.00
Match total	7.50	6.83	8.69
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.57
Opponent cards	3.00	2.71
Match total	5.00	5.28	4.45
Over 3.5	83% 5/6	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	67% 4/6	43% 3/7

	SC Braga	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.00
Corners conceded	3.70	3.11
Match total	8.20	7.11	8.69
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.70	2.80
Match total	5.20	5.00	4.45
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pinheiro 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.82league 4.19

Red cards0.09league 0.21

Cards 5+9%league 46%

Fouls21.7league 24.8

Penalties0.36league 0.35

Home wins55%league 38%

SC Braga

No previous matches with this referee.

Sporting CP1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W5 Sep 26H · Nacional2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.