SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 63). SC Freiburg had 4.2 days of rest, Aston Villa 5 and had to travel 853 km.
Away travel853 kmRest days4.2 · 5Matches / 14d3 · 3
SC Freiburg29%
Draw24%
Aston Villa47%
SC Freiburg29%
Draw27%
Aston Villa45%
SC Freiburg29%
Draw24%
Aston Villa47%
SC Freiburg23%
Draw23%
Aston Villa55%
SC Freiburg29%
Draw25%
Aston Villa46%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 129
Team strength
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
63
AttackIn forecast
83
73
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgAston Villa
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+1.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.89
83%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
11.00
ShotsContext
10.67
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
46%
On target shareContext
42%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
66%
Box shareContext
66%
23%
ConversionContext
22%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.17
Shots allowedContext
9.83
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.00
BlocksContext
3.80
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
80%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
409
PassesContext
390
340
Accurate passesContext
326
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.00
FoulsContext
11.67
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
12.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
41%
On target shareContext
44%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
66%
Box shareContext
61%
18%
ConversionContext
19%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
4.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
399
PassesContext
410
327
Accurate passesContext
346
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.70
FoulsContext
11.60
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,271 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Aston Villa
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel853 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May | 5Premier League 2025-2026, 15 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 853 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,271 km | 297 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 101.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
29P. Treu
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
27N. Höfler
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
44J. Manzambi
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
3V. Lindelöf
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Aston Villa-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Aston Villa · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.67 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 17% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SC Freiburg | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 7.83 | 8.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 1.83 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| SC Freiburg | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.88 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 7.51 | 9.10 | 8.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.20 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.14
Red cards0.26league 0.29
Cards 5+45%league 57%
Fouls22.1league 25.8
Penalties0.34league 0.32
Home wins51%league 54%
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 14 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
6
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.