SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 43 pts · 31 played
WLWWL
1–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 25 pts · 31 played
LLLWD
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 35). SC Freiburg had 2.9 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 8.2 and had to travel 535 km.
Away travel535 kmRest days2.9 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
SC Freiburg64%
Draw20%
VfL Wolfsburg16%
SC Freiburg60%
Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
SC Freiburg63%
Draw20%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
SC Freiburg56%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg22%
SC Freiburg63%
Draw21%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 78
Team strength
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
63
AttackIn forecast
50
73
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
71%
Scored inContext
77%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
12.32
ShotsContext
11.10
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.86
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
67%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.37
OffsidesContext
1.65
13.39
Shots allowedContext
15.03
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.52
4.39
BlocksContext
4.10
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
65%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
394
PassesContext
398
321
Accurate passesContext
316
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.13
FoulsContext
11.29
11.58
Fouls sufferedContext
8.84
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.40
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
40%
On target shareContext
36%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
69%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.13
12.20
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.60
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
68%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
392
PassesContext
375
323
Accurate passesContext
290
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.90
FoulsContext
12.40
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
7.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,718 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel535 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 30 Apr | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 535 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,718 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
9L. Höler
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
6J. Belocian
21J. Mæhle
24C. Eriksen
5Vinicius Souza
39P. Wimmer
26S. Kumbedi
17D. Pejčinović
11A. Daghim
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.87points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-3
- Scored
- 1.87
- Conceded
- 1.33
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-8
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 2–6 A | L 1–8 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | L 3–6 AL 1–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 40 of 90 · 1.33 per game | 25 of 90 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 SC Freiburg wins0 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.89 – 1.67
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets44% · 11%
- 20 Dec 2025VfL Wolfsburg3–4SC Freiburg
- 26 Apr 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–1SC Freiburg
- 13 Dec 2024SC Freiburg3–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 27 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 9 Dec 2023VfL Wolfsburg0–1SC Freiburg
- 19 May 2023SC Freiburg2–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.45 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 68% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 74% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 23% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.81 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 7.43 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 11.53 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 7/26 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 1.61 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.58 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 15/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 12/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| SC Freiburg | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 7.90 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 12.60 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.72
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 20.3
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins46%league 43%
SC Freiburg8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W25 Jan 26H · 1.FC Köln2–11
- D28 Sep 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–13
- W19 Oct 24H · FC Augsburg3–11
- L25 Feb 24A · FC Augsburg1–21
- W19 May 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–02
VfL Wolfsburg6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D13 Sep 25H · 1.FC Köln3–32
- L29 Mar 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–12
- L12 May 24A · Bayern München0–22
- L7 Apr 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–32
- L19 May 23A · SC Freiburg0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg31 games · scored 44 · conceded 52
7
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
10
31-45
9
16
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
13
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg31 games · scored 41 · conceded 66
9
6
0-15
7
10
16-30
5
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
7
12
61-75
6
19
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
