SC Paderborn 07
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Paderborn 07. SC Paderborn 07 had 7 days of rest, SC Freiburg 6 and had to travel 419 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel419 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Paderborn 0733%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg42%
SC Paderborn 0731%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg43%
SC Paderborn 0733%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg41%
SC Paderborn 0726%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg50%
SC Paderborn 0733%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg42%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paderborn)
19°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.2 mm
- Wind 23 km/h
- Humidity 59%
Referee · GermanyMax Burda
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 16
Team strength
SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
34
AttackIn forecast
63
33
DefenceIn forecast
73
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC Paderborn 07SC Freiburg
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.84
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.70
ShotsContext
11.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
38%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
69%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
18%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.78
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.89
BlocksContext
4.30
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
79%
Save rateContext
58%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
410
PassesContext
400
331
Accurate passesContext
331
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.80
FoulsContext
11.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Paderborn 07
D
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 1 pts vs 1.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
- D29 AugA · FSV Mainz 050–00.9 xPts
SC Freiburg
W
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel419 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 61 · 3 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
- W30 AugH · Werder Bremen4–12.0 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Paderborn 07 |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 419 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 392 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Paderborn 07
Confirmed XI
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen
25T. Scheller
21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair
40G. Vidović
28L. Ulrich
17L. Curda
9Rayan Philippe
18M. Pieringer
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Paderborn 07
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Paderborn 07-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Paderborn 07 · Home
No home games yet this season.
SC Freiburg · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Paderborn 07 | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 90% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 20% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Paderborn 07 | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 11.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 11.00 | 11.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 7.78 | 11.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Max Burda Germany · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.06league 3.10
Red cards0.06league 0.20
Cards 5+56%league 20%
Fouls23.4league 23.0
Penalties0.56league 0.10
Home wins56%league 80%
SC Paderborn 072 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D18 Apr 26A · Hannover 961–11
- W18 Oct 25H · Arminia Bielefeld4–35
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W21 Feb 25H · Werder Bremen5–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Paderborn 071 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
SC Freiburg1 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
4
0-15
7
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
