Sevilla vs Barcelona – 5 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 15:15 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 11th · 10 pts · 7 played WDWLW

4–1Full time

Barcelona 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played DWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Barcelona. Sevilla had 7.1 days of rest, Barcelona 6.9 and had to travel 828 km.

Away travel828 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 3

Sevilla16%

Draw22%

Barcelona62%

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.97

Sevilla15%

Draw21%

Barcelona64%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.03

Sevilla14%

Draw21%

Barcelona65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.06

Sevilla12%

Draw19%

Barcelona69%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.21

Sevilla17%

Draw23%

Barcelona61%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.94

Over 2.5 54% Both score 51% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 27

Team strength

Sevilla

Barcelona

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

48 AttackIn forecast 97

57 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sevilla

Barcelona

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

0.71 xGVia Att/Def 2.21

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.86 Goals minus xGContext +0.79

100% Scored inContext 100%

29% Clean sheetsContext 43%

10.14 ShotsContext 20.43

3.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.14

31% On target shareContext 40%

6.86 Shots in the boxContext 12.29

65% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 15%

3.60 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.71 Shots allowedContext 6.14

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.50 BlocksContext 2.20

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29

85% Save rateContext 76%

53% PossessionIn forecast 72%

425 PassesContext 661

351 Accurate passesContext 595

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.17

15.57 FoulsContext 9.00

14.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.14

2.86 Yellow cardsContext 0.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.79 xGVia Att/Def 2.15

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.55

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.40 ShotsContext 18.70

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.90

31% On target shareContext 37%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

65% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 14%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.43

12.30 Shots allowedContext 7.60

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.56 BlocksContext 2.25

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

76% Save rateContext 79%

51% PossessionIn forecast 70%

415 PassesContext 629

344 Accurate passesContext 565

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.15

15.20 FoulsContext 9.50

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel828 km1,385 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	828 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	1,385 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	12.9	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 23Marcão 3César Azpilicueta 2J. Carmona Navarro

19B. Mendy 18L. Agoumé

11R. Vargas 20M. Sow 10A. Sánchez

7Isaac Romero

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25W. Szczęsny(G)

18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 4R. Araujo 23J. Koundé

8Pedri 21F. de Jong

7Ferran Torres 20Dani Olmo 14M. Rashford

9R. Lewandowski

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+1.6 pp
Draw+1.1 pp
Barcelona-2.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.00

Barcelona · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Getafe	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 Sevilla wins2 draws8 Barcelona wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.30 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

9 Feb 2025Sevilla1–4Barcelona
20 Oct 2024Barcelona5–1Sevilla
26 May 2024Sevilla1–2Barcelona
29 Sep 2023Barcelona1–0Sevilla
5 Feb 2023Barcelona3–0Sevilla
3 Sep 2022Sevilla0–3Barcelona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	3.00
Conceded per game	1.43	0.71
Match goals	3.00	3.71	2.86
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	71%	86%	54%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	51%
Clean sheets	29%	43%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	7	7

	Sevilla	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	3.00
Conceded per game	1.43	0.71
Match goals	3.00	3.71	2.86
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	71%	86%	54%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	51%
Clean sheets	29%	43%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.50
Corners conceded	6.29	4.17
Match total	9.29	10.67	9.68
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.86	0.86
Opponent cards	2.00	3.14
Match total	4.86	4.00	4.31
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7

	Sevilla	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	5.89
Corners conceded	5.60	4.67
Match total	8.70	10.56	9.68
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	2.70
Match total	5.00	4.10	4.31
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.93league 4.04

Red cards0.33league 0.29

Cards 5+59%league 46%

Fouls24.7league 24.4

Penalties0.41league 0.32

Home wins52%league 50%

Sevilla1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 Apr 24A · Las Palmas2–03

Barcelona3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 May 25A · Valladolid2–12
W24 Feb 24H · Getafe4–01
W20 Aug 23H · Cadiz2–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.