Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 43). Sevilla had 8.3 days of rest, Celta Vigo 9.3 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days8.3 · 9.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo39%
Sevilla33%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo40%
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo39%
Sevilla27%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo46%
Sevilla33%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo40%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 45
Team strength
Sevilla
Celta Vigo
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
48
AttackIn forecast
36
57
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaCelta Vigo
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
78%
Scored inContext
83%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.89
ShotsContext
10.11
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.39
67%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
3.54
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.44
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.18
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
70%
Save rateContext
79%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
424
PassesContext
487
348
Accurate passesContext
417
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
15.00
FoulsContext
11.28
13.28
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
3.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.20
ShotsContext
7.60
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
45%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
66%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
22%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.38
9.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.43
BlocksContext
3.67
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
58%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
439
PassesContext
459
361
Accurate passesContext
389
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.30
FoulsContext
11.80
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel588 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 9.3La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
2J. Carmona Navarro
36Oso
20M. Sow
19B. Mendy
16Juanlu Sánchez
14Peque Fernández
7Isaac Romero
18L. Agoumé
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
3Óscar Mingueza
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
15Bryan Zaragoza
6I. Moriba
16Miguel Román
39Jones El-Abdellaoui
7Borja Iglesias
10Iago Aspas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.67
Celta Vigo · Away
1.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 4–1 H | L 2–4 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Girona | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 20 of 54 · 1.11 per game | 26 of 54 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Sevilla wins4 draws2 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 10 May 2025Celta Vigo3–2Sevilla
- 14 Dec 2024Sevilla1–0Celta Vigo
- 17 Mar 2024Sevilla1–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Nov 2023Celta Vigo1–1Sevilla
- 7 Apr 2023Sevilla2–2Celta Vigo
- 30 Dec 2022Celta Vigo1–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.44 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 28% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Sevilla | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.50 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 11/18 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 1.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.39 | 4.39 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 12/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Sevilla | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 6.78 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.60 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.49league 4.11
Red cards0.36league 0.27
Cards 5+49%league 46%
Fouls24.5league 24.5
Penalties0.24league 0.34
Home wins51%league 46%
Sevilla3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Apr 24A · Real Betis1–15
- L4 Jan 24H · Athletic Club0–23
- L11 Aug 23H · Valencia1–24
Celta Vigo3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W1 Mar 24H · Almeria1–01
- W16 Dec 23H · Granada CF1–07
- D8 Oct 23H · Getafe2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla18 games · scored 24 · conceded 29
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
10
76-90
Celta Vigo17 games · scored 22 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
