Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 48). Sevilla had 5.8 days of rest, Real Betis 2.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sevilla32%
Draw28%
Real Betis40%
Sevilla32%
Draw27%
Real Betis41%
Sevilla31%
Draw28%
Real Betis41%
Sevilla26%
Draw27%
Real Betis48%
Sevilla32%
Draw27%
Real Betis41%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 32
Team strength
Sevilla
Real Betis
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
48
AttackIn forecast
79
57
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaReal Betis
1.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
92%
Scored inContext
92%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.00
ShotsContext
15.08
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.77
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.62
Shots in the boxContext
9.08
65%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
4.00
OffsidesContext
1.73
10.85
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.54
4.00
BlocksContext
2.75
3.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
73%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
418
PassesContext
503
343
Accurate passesContext
432
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.96
14.92
FoulsContext
9.54
13.23
Fouls sufferedContext
13.31
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.50
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
62%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
3.43
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.20
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.14
BlocksContext
2.63
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
70%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
412
PassesContext
510
337
Accurate passesContext
439
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.95
15.80
FoulsContext
10.60
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Real Betis
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Nov | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,641 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
2J. Carmona Navarro
23Marcão
3César Azpilicueta
16Juanlu Sánchez
19B. Mendy
20M. Sow
17Alfon González
14Peque Fernández
21C. Ejuke
9A. Adams
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
24Aitor Ruibal
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
21Marc Roca
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
52Pablo García
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Real Betis-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Real Betis · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Sevilla wins5 draws1 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.10 – 0.70
Over 2.520%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 10%
- 30 Mar 2025Real Betis2–1Sevilla
- 6 Oct 2024Sevilla1–0Real Betis
- 28 Apr 2024Real Betis1–1Sevilla
- 12 Nov 2023Sevilla1–1Real Betis
- 21 May 2023Sevilla0–0Real Betis
- 6 Nov 2022Real Betis1–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.46 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.62 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 46% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 69% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Sevilla | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.46 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.69 | 10.08 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 9/13 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.62 | |
| Match total | 5.08 | 4.47 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 8/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Sevilla | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.11 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.30 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.10
Red cards0.28league 0.26
Cards 5+53%league 46%
Fouls25.2league 24.6
Penalties0.19league 0.33
Home wins38%league 48%
SevillaNo previous matches with this referee.
Real BetisNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla13 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
Real Betis13 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
2
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
