Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 40). Sevilla had 8.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 8.3 and had to travel 741 km.
Away travel741 kmRest days8.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad39%
Sevilla34%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad39%
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad39%
Sevilla27%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad46%
Sevilla34%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad39%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 44
Team strength
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
48
AttackIn forecast
62
57
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaReal Sociedad
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
76%
Scored inContext
88%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
10.73
ShotsContext
12.61
3.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.03
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
64%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.07
OffsidesContext
2.78
10.42
Shots allowedContext
12.88
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.30
BlocksContext
3.40
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
66%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
402
PassesContext
437
327
Accurate passesContext
362
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.27
FoulsContext
13.85
12.42
Fouls sufferedContext
12.12
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
12.30
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
22%
On target shareContext
37%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
61%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
2.89
BlocksContext
2.90
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
58%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
354
PassesContext
484
277
Accurate passesContext
410
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.60
FoulsContext
12.20
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,494 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel741 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 741 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,494 km | 705 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
32A. López Gallo
2J. Carmona Navarro
21C. Ejuke
6N. Gudelj
18L. Agoumé
11R. Vargas
17N. Maupay
7Isaac Romero
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
4Jon Gorrotxategi
8Beñat Turrientes
15Pablo Marín
18Carlos Soler
7Barrenetxea
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-7
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.44
Real Sociedad · Away
0.94points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Levante | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Points | 34 of 96 · 1.06 per game | 40 of 96 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Sevilla wins2 draws5 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 24 Oct 2025Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
- 9 Mar 2025Real Sociedad0–1Sevilla
- 3 Nov 2024Sevilla0–2Real Sociedad
- 2 Mar 2024Sevilla3–2Real Sociedad
- 26 Nov 2023Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
- 4 Jun 2023Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.15 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 61% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 79% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 12% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Sevilla | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 10.28 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 18/32 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 17/32 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 12/32 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 4.60 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 23/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 19/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Sevilla | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.12 | 10.60 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.10 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.28
Red cards0.20league 0.27
Cards 5+43%league 47%
Fouls26.1league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins48%league 49%
Sevilla3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L15 Mar 26A · Barcelona2–51
- W13 May 25H · Las Palmas1–06
- W17 Sep 23H · Las Palmas1–03
Real Sociedad3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D4 Jan 26H · Atletico Madrid1–13
- D19 Oct 25A · Celta Vigo1–13
- W9 Mar 24A · Granada CF3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla33 games · scored 40 · conceded 55
5
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
7
14
31-45
7
10
46-60
6
6
61-75
10
15
76-90
Real Sociedad33 games · scored 52 · conceded 52
3
8
0-15
9
7
16-30
10
10
31-45
10
9
46-60
8
4
61-75
12
14
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
2
5
0-15
6
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
