Sevilla vs Valencia – 21 Mar 2026

La Liga Gameweek 29 Sat, Mar 21 · 20:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 15th · 31 pts · 28 played DWDDL

0–2Full time

Valencia 14th · 32 pts · 28 played WLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Valencia. Sevilla had 6.2 days of rest, Valencia 7.1 and had to travel 540 km.

Away travel540 kmRest days6.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sevilla37%

Draw29%

Valencia34%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.18

Sevilla39%

Draw27%

Valencia34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Sevilla37%

Draw29%

Valencia34%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.16

Sevilla31%

Draw29%

Valencia41%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.32

Sevilla38%

Draw28%

Valencia34%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.25

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 37

Team strength

Sevilla

Valencia

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

48 AttackIn forecast 39

57 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sevilla

Valencia

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.07

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

82% Scored inContext 75%

18% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.07

3.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 26%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.23

64% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 10%

3.32 OffsidesContext 2.05

10.46 Shots allowedContext 11.68

4.39 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.37

3.45 BlocksContext 2.92

3.21 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.21

67% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

416 PassesContext 417

341 Accurate passesContext 343

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.64 FoulsContext 11.89

12.61 Fouls sufferedContext 11.36

2.68 Yellow cardsContext 1.89

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.20 ShotsContext 11.20

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

36% On target shareContext 25%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

60% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.50 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

3.38 BlocksContext 2.60

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

62% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

401 PassesContext 404

328 Accurate passesContext 328

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.77

14.00 FoulsContext 12.70

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,656 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel540 km1,256 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	540 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,656 km	1,256 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.9	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 6N. Gudelj 3César Azpilicueta

20M. Sow 18L. Agoumé 16Juanlu Sánchez

10A. Sánchez 17N. Maupay 11R. Vargas

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 24E. Cömert 5César Tárrega 4Unai Núñez

10André Almeida 2G. Rodríguez 8Javi Guerra

17L. Ramazani 9Hugo Duro 11Luis Rioja

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Valencia-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.14points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-6
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.43

Valencia · Away 0.64points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-9
Scored: 0.79
Conceded: 1.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Valencia
Barcelona	L 2–5 AW 4–1 H	L 0–6 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Real Betis	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Getafe	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Alaves	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
Girona	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	L 1–2 A
Mallorca	L 1–4 AL 1–3 H	D 1–1 H
Athletic Club	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	W 2–0 H
Elche	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	L 1–4 A
Levante	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A
Oviedo	W 4–0 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 A
Real Sociedad	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Villarreal	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Points	30 of 81 · 1.11 per game	31 of 81 · 1.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Sevilla wins5 draws2 Valencia wins

Goals per game1.10 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%

7 Dec 2025Valencia1–1Sevilla
11 Apr 2025Valencia1–0Sevilla
11 Jan 2025Sevilla1–1Valencia
17 Feb 2024Valencia0–0Sevilla
11 Aug 2023Sevilla1–2Valencia
16 Apr 2023Valencia0–2Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	1.07
Conceded per game	1.68	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.57	2.42
Over 1.5	86%	79%
Over 2.5	61%	43%	44%
Over 3.5	32%	21%
Both teams scored	64%	54%	50%
Clean sheets	18%	25%
Failed to score	18%	25%
Games	28	28

	Sevilla	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.50	2.42
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	44%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.04	5.20
Corners conceded	4.52	5.00
Match total	9.56	10.20	9.51
Over 8.5	56% 15/27	68% 17/25
Over 9.5	56% 15/27	52% 13/25
Over 10.5	37% 10/27	52% 13/25
Cards
Cards	2.82	1.93
Opponent cards	2.11	2.50
Match total	4.93	4.43	4.48
Over 3.5	68% 19/28	68% 19/28
Over 4.5	57% 16/28	57% 16/28

	Sevilla	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	5.00
Corners conceded	4.00	5.00
Match total	9.11	10.00	9.51
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.10
Opponent cards	1.90	2.80
Match total	4.10	4.90	4.48
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 4.22

Red cards0.19league 0.28

Cards 5+38%league 47%

Fouls25.1league 24.5

Penalties0.22league 0.37

Home wins38%league 48%

Sevilla1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L18 Oct 25H · Mallorca1–32

Valencia3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D9 Nov 25H · Real Betis1–13
D23 May 25A · Real Betis1–12
W5 Nov 23H · Granada CF1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.