Sevilla vs Villarreal – 23 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Tue, Sep 23 · 20:30 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 10th · 7 pts · 5 played LLWDW

1–2Full time

Villarreal 4th · 10 pts · 5 played WWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 47). Absences weigh more on Villarreal. Sevilla had 3.1 days of rest, Villarreal 3.1 and had to travel 584 km.

Away travel584 kmRest days3.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sevilla29%

Draw28%

Villarreal44%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.43

Sevilla28%

Draw26%

Villarreal46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Sevilla28%

Draw28%

Villarreal45%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.45

Sevilla23%

Draw26%

Villarreal51%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.60

Sevilla29%

Draw27%

Villarreal45%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.53

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 27

Team strength

Sevilla

Villarreal

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

48 AttackIn forecast 76

57 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sevilla

Villarreal

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

+1.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

100% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.40 ShotsContext 17.20

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

37% On target shareContext 34%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

68% Box shareContext 63%

17% ConversionContext 12%

4.25 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.40 Shots allowedContext 6.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.60

4.75 BlocksContext 2.67

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

87% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

426 PassesContext 491

353 Accurate passesContext 433

83% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.07

15.40 FoulsContext 10.20

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 14.60

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67

36% On target shareContext 35%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

66% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 14%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.90 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.89 BlocksContext 3.63

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

66% Save rateContext 80%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

416 PassesContext 442

345 Accurate passesContext 383

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.06

15.30 FoulsContext 9.60

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,339 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Villarreal

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel584 km621 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	584 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,339 km	621 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.7	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

4Kike Salas 32A. López Gallo 3César Azpilicueta

12G. Suazo 6N. Gudelj 20M. Sow 16Juanlu Sánchez

21C. Ejuke 9A. Adams 24A. Januzaj

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25Arnau Tenas(G)

23Sergi Cardona 12Renato Veiga 4Rafa Marín 15S. Mouriño

18P. Gueye 10Dani Parejo 14Santi Comesaña

20Alberto Moleiro 21T. Oluwaseyi 17T. Buchanan

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+1.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Villarreal-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Villarreal · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Villarreal
Girona	W 2–0 A	W 5–0 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Sevilla wins3 draws4 Villarreal wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.70 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%

25 May 2025Villarreal4–2Sevilla
23 Aug 2024Sevilla1–2Villarreal
11 May 2024Villarreal3–2Sevilla
3 Dec 2023Sevilla1–1Villarreal
23 Apr 2023Sevilla2–1Villarreal
18 Sep 2022Villarreal1–1Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.00
Conceded per game	1.60	0.80
Match goals	3.40	2.80	2.54
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	5	5

	Sevilla	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.00
Conceded per game	1.60	0.80
Match goals	3.40	2.80	2.54
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	2.80	6.25
Corners conceded	5.80	2.75
Match total	8.60	9.00	9.38
Over 8.5	40% 2/5	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	3.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.40	2.20
Match total	4.60	4.00	4.16
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	40% 2/5

	Sevilla	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.44
Corners conceded	4.60	4.44
Match total	8.30	8.88	9.38
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.10	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	2.10
Match total	5.10	3.80	4.16
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.93league 3.85

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+63%league 40%

Fouls24.0league 24.4

Penalties0.22league 0.32

Home wins48%league 47%

Sevilla3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 4.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

D17 Feb 24A · Valencia0–01
L23 Dec 23A · Atletico Madrid0–13
D28 Oct 23A · Cadiz2–24

Villarreal2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L5 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–31
W20 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.