SK Beveren
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lommel United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lommel United. SK Beveren had 19.1 days of rest, Lommel United 20 and had to travel 74 km.
Away travel74 kmRest days19.1 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
SK Beveren37%
Draw25%
Lommel United37%
SK Beveren39%
Draw26%
Lommel United35%
SK Beveren37%
Draw25%
Lommel United37%
SK Beveren30%
Draw25%
Lommel United45%
SK Beveren37%
Draw25%
Lommel United38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Beveren)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 18
Team strength
SK Beveren
Lommel United
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
18
AttackIn forecast
32
20
DefenceIn forecast
41
28
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SK BeverenLommel United
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
57%
Scored inContext
43%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
10.57
ShotsContext
9.86
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
31%
On target shareContext
25%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
15.29
Shots allowedContext
20.86
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.71
BlocksContext
7.00
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
74%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
468
PassesContext
423
377
Accurate passesContext
353
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.14
FoulsContext
7.29
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
57%
Scored inContext
50%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.57
ShotsContext
9.50
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
31%
On target shareContext
27%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.29
Shots allowedContext
20.00
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.71
BlocksContext
5.90
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
74%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
468
PassesContext
409
377
Accurate passesContext
334
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.14
FoulsContext
8.10
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SK Beveren
LLWWL
Rest19.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 28 · 6 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
Lommel United
WWLLD
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel74 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SK Beveren |
Lommel United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 74 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SK Beveren
Confirmed XI
1J. Schenk(G)
4C. Janssens
31B. Godeau
35Y. Gomis
25C. Konaté
44C. Conde
18S. Dewaele
17J. Margaritha
22C. Brüls
5C. Lokesa
9M. Kaboré
Lommel United
Confirmed XI
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
8Nicolas Rommens
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll
15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah
10Tom Reyners
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SK Beveren
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lommel United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SK Beveren+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SK Beveren · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Lommel United · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | SK Beveren | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SK Beveren | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 14% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| SK Beveren | Lommel United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 14% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SK Beveren | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 7.43 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 10.86 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 2.57 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| SK Beveren | Lommel United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 7.60 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 11.00 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 2.90 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 3.10
Red cards0.22league 0.14
Cards 5+22%league 27%
Fouls22.8league 22.2
Penalties0.11league 0.25
Home wins39%league 51%
SK Beveren1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Aug 26A · Zulte Waregem0–43
Lommel UnitedNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SK Beveren7 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lommel United6 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
SK Beveren7 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
