Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 epet ARENA, Praha

Sparta Praha 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–1Full time

Lillestrom 24th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Praha were slight favourites.

Sparta Praha were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Sparta Praha. Sparta Praha were without L. Mbe Soh and J. Alcócer. Sparta Praha had 29 days of rest, Lillestrom 27.9 and had to travel 1,120 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,120 kmRest days29 · 27.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Sparta Praha49%

Draw23%

Lillestrom29%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.38

Sparta Praha50%

Draw25%

Lillestrom25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Sparta Praha51%

Draw22%

Lillestrom26%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.31

Sparta Praha41%

Draw23%

Lillestrom36%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.55

Sparta Praha49%

Draw23%

Lillestrom28%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.33

Over 2.5 63% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Praha)

14°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 2 km/h
Humidity 64%

RefereeMartin Matoša

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 7

Team strength

Sparta Praha

Lillestrom

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

33 AttackIn forecast 23

34 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Praha

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lillestrom

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Praha

Lillestrom

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.11 xGVia Att/Def —

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext —

60% Scored inContext 67%

30% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.20 ShotsContext —

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

31% On target shareContext 26%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext —

66% Box shareContext —

12% ConversionContext 4%

2.11 OffsidesContext —

11.50 Shots allowedContext —

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.75 BlocksContext —

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext —

77% Save rateContext 33%

54% PossessionIn forecast 58%

438 PassesContext —

365 Accurate passesContext —

83% Pass accuracyContext —

6.77 Team ratingContext —

12.30 FoulsContext 14.00

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 3 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Praha W

Rest29 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 57 · 3 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W16 SepA · Ararat-Armenia4–11.9 xPts

Lillestrom L

Rest27.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,120 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 SepH · Torreense1–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Praha	Lillestrom
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	29UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep	27.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,120 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Praha Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

44J. Surovčík(G)

15V. Vitályos 6T. Guddal 19A. Ševínský 2M. Suchomel

20S. Mannsverk 18A. Irving

27E. Singhateh 38Hugo Sochurek 31M. Jurásek

14J. Braut Brunes

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Lillestrom Confirmed XI

4-3-3

12P. Dahlberg(G)

26W. Paintsil 47S. Kristiansen 28L. Gabrielsen 2Lars Ranger

14G. Nyheim 21F. Ottosson 29Y. Ibrahimaj

20Vá 8F. Gulbrandsen 22D. Bassi

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Praha Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −27.4% · Defence line −34.0% of weighted minutes

DEF L. Mbe Soh Starter 6.30 Def −12.2%
ATT J. Alcócer Starter 6.73 Att −19.2%
MID A. Karabec Starter 6.40 Att −8.2% Def −5.1%
DEF J. Zelený Starter 6.74 Def −7.9%
DEF M. Ryneš Starter 7.02 Def −7.2%
DEF Uchenna Aririerisim Rotation 6.90 Def −1.6%

4 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Kofod Andersen, E. Cobbaut, Ondrej Penxa, J. Martinec

Lillestrom Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −0.8% · Defence line −0.8% of weighted minutes

MID L. Alperud Rotation — Att −0.8% Def −0.8%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): E. B. Garnas, C. Jebara

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Praha-2.6 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Lillestrom+2.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sparta Praha · Home No home games yet this season.

Lillestrom · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Praha	Lillestrom	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	5.00	3.00	3.24
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Sparta Praha	Lillestrom	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.67	1.00
Match goals	3.67	2.00	3.24
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	67%	63%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Praha	Lillestrom	League
Corners
Corners won	13.00	11.00
Corners conceded	2.00	2.00
Match total	15.00	13.00	10.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	5.00
Match total	3.00	6.00	3.38
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Sparta Praha	Lillestrom	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	8.00
Corners conceded	4.78	5.33
Match total	10.56	13.33	10.69
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	100% 3/3
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.67
Opponent cards	1.70	2.67
Match total	3.50	4.34	3.38
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	67% 2/3

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martin Matoša 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.14league 3.28

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+57%league 39%

Fouls23.2league 25.2

Penalties0.29league 0.17

Home wins57%league 44%

Sparta Praha

No previous matches with this referee.

Lillestrom

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.