Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 21). Sparta Rotterdam had 6.8 days of rest, Ajax 7 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Ajax53%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Ajax51%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Ajax53%
Sparta Rotterdam17%
Draw23%
Ajax60%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw26%
Ajax51%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 40
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
31
AttackIn forecast
66
17
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamAjax
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
71%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.14
ShotsContext
16.43
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.29
34%
On target shareContext
44%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
12.86
64%
Box shareContext
78%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
19.00
Shots allowedContext
11.71
7.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
4.86
BlocksContext
3.14
4.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
62%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
358
PassesContext
529
281
Accurate passesContext
462
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.12
7.14
FoulsContext
12.57
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
14.50
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
38%
On target shareContext
40%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
66%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.10
20.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
7.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
6.00
BlocksContext
3.20
4.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
65%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
361
PassesContext
517
284
Accurate passesContext
451
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
7.50
FoulsContext
12.40
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 223 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8J. Kitolano
6J. Baas
11A. Oufkir
10P. Clement
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
24J. Mokio
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
2Lucas Rosa
8K. Taylor
28K. Fitz-Jim
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
25W. Weghorst
7Raúl Moro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Ajax-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.33
Ajax · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 27 Apr 2025Ajax1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2Ajax
- 9 Dec 2023Ajax2–1Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.71 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.71 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.71 | 6.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.43 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 12.00 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.63 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.13 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 11.33 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.40 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.25league 3.53
Red cards0.08league 0.22
Cards 5+13%league 38%
Fouls16.9league 22.6
Penalties0.25league 0.19
Home wins55%league 48%
Sparta Rotterdam1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–61
Ajax7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L20 Apr 25A · Utrecht0–43
- W9 Mar 25A · PEC Zwolle1–00
- W27 Oct 24H · Willem II1–01
- W11 Aug 24H · Heerenveen1–00
- D18 Feb 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam7 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
3
3
76-90
Ajax7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
