Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam
10th · 43 pts · 33 played
DLLDL
First leg1–0
2–3Full time
Excelsior
14th · 35 pts · 33 played
LDWWD
Sparta Rotterdam33.0%fair odds 3.03
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Excelsior41.8%fair odds 2.39
Expected goals1.42 – 1.62total 3.03
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.61
- 1–28.9%11.22
- 2–17.8%12.80
- 0–17.2%13.90
- 2–26.3%15.83
- 0–26.3%15.89
- 1–06.2%16.04
- 0–05.4%18.54
- 2–04.8%20.70
- 1–34.8%20.81
Winning margin
5.6%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 17.82
9.8%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 10.25
17.7%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 5.66
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
20.2%
Excelsior by 1
fair 4.94
12.7%
Excelsior by 2
fair 7.87
8.8%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 11.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
6%4+
Excelsior goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 33.0% | 33.0% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Excelsior win | 41.8% | 41.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 56.2% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.3% | 59.6% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.42 | 1.37 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.62 | 1.56 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win33.0%3.03
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Excelsior win41.8%2.39
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw58.2%1.72
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or Excelsior74.8%1.34
- Double chance Excelsior or draw67.0%1.49
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam44.2%2.26
- Draw no bet Excelsior55.8%1.79
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.2%1.23
- Over 2.558.4%1.71
- Over 3.536.0%2.77
- Over 4.519.1%5.25
- Under 1.518.8%5.31
- Under 2.541.6%2.41
- Under 3.564.0%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes61.3%1.63
- No38.7%2.58
- Yes and over 2.549.7%2.01
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes18.6%5.38
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Excelsior win and yes22.9%4.36
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.575.8%1.32
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.541.4%2.42
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.517.1%5.86
- Excelsior over 0.580.2%1.25
- Excelsior over 1.548.1%2.08
- Excelsior over 2.522.1%4.52
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet19.8%5.04
- Excelsior clean sheet24.2%4.12
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil14.4%6.92
- Excelsior win to nil18.8%5.31
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.515.4%6.51
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.55.6%17.82
- Excelsior +1.584.6%1.18
- Excelsior +2.594.4%1.06
- Excelsior −1.521.5%4.64
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.578.5%1.27
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored297
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right61.6%
BTTS called right62.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 111 | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.2% | 49.3% |
| 60–70% | 40 | 64.3% | 67.5% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 239 of 297 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5891 | 0.5824 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.0% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 239 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.