Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
10th · 43 pts · 33 played
DLLDL
First leg1–0
2–3Full time
Excelsior
14th · 35 pts · 33 played
LDWWD
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.9 days of rest, Excelsior 6.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam33%
Draw25%
Excelsior42%
Sparta Rotterdam46%
Draw27%
Excelsior28%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Draw25%
Excelsior39%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Draw24%
Excelsior50%
Sparta Rotterdam33%
Draw26%
Excelsior41%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 77
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
32
AttackIn forecast
21
17
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
73%
Scored inContext
79%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.55
ShotsContext
11.91
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.12
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.74
OffsidesContext
1.52
15.70
Shots allowedContext
14.33
6.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.48
4.33
BlocksContext
4.00
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.91
70%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
388
PassesContext
394
312
Accurate passesContext
308
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.45
FoulsContext
11.73
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.24
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
29%
On target shareContext
35%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
62%
Box shareContext
69%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.20
Shots allowedContext
11.60
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.20
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
68%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
394
PassesContext
413
322
Accurate passesContext
324
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.50
FoulsContext
10.30
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 337 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 83.9 | 82.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5G. Vianello
4T. Quintero
3M. Young
2S. Bakari
6P. Clement
8J. Kitolano
11S. Mito
10Vito van Crooij
7A. Santos
9T. Lauritsen
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
14L. Schouten
4C. Widell
3R. Meissen
23I. Yegoian
20L. Hartjes
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
29M. van Duinen
30D. Sanches Fernandes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam-2.8 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Excelsior+2.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.50
Excelsior · Away
1.06points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | L 0–4 AL 1–5 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Telstar | L 1–4 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 HL 1–6 A | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H |
| NAC Breda | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Ajax | L 0–4 AD 3–3 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 5–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 40 of 96 · 1.25 per game | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws1 Excelsior wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Excelsior0–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 Feb 2024Sparta Rotterdam4–2Excelsior
- 1 Oct 2023Excelsior2–1Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.85 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 61% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 64% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 21% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.74 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.48 | 5.34 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 9.47 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 87% 27/31 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 22/31 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 18/31 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 2.75 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 21/33 | 30% 10/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 12/33 | 18% 6/33 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.33 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.10 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 3.11
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 26%
Fouls19.8league 21.2
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins36%league 45%
Sparta Rotterdam8 with this referee
Record4-0-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L22 Feb 26A · AZ Alkmaar1–32
- W17 Aug 25H · Utrecht2–11
- W10 May 25A · Almere City FC3–01
- L14 Feb 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–13
- L22 Dec 24H · Ajax0–22
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Jan 26A · Twente0–01
- W13 Aug 23A · NEC Nijmegen4–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam33 games · scored 38 · conceded 59
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
11
31-45
5
10
46-60
6
15
61-75
12
17
76-90
Excelsior33 games · scored 40 · conceded 54
7
6
0-15
5
8
16-30
8
8
31-45
3
15
46-60
5
9
61-75
12
8
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
10
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
