Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
9th · 38 pts · 27 played
DLLDL
First leg1–0
2–0Full time
FC Volendam
14th · 27 pts · 27 played
WLWLL
Our take
Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.
Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 14). Absences weigh more on FC Volendam. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.9 days of rest, FC Volendam 7.1 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sparta Rotterdam55%
Draw24%
FC Volendam21%
Sparta Rotterdam53%
Draw25%
FC Volendam22%
Sparta Rotterdam53%
Draw24%
FC Volendam23%
Sparta Rotterdam47%
Draw25%
FC Volendam28%
Sparta Rotterdam54%
Draw24%
FC Volendam22%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsEdwin Van de Graaf
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 22
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamFC Volendam
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
32
AttackIn forecast
14
17
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamFC Volendam
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
12.63
ShotsContext
10.37
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
67%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.69
OffsidesContext
1.70
15.89
Shots allowedContext
18.52
6.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.26
4.41
BlocksContext
5.59
4.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
70%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
391
PassesContext
360
312
Accurate passesContext
287
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.15
FoulsContext
9.33
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
64%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.11
14.30
Shots allowedContext
19.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
4.30
BlocksContext
5.40
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.40
73%
Save rateContext
79%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
412
PassesContext
369
330
Accurate passesContext
290
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.60
FoulsContext
9.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel75 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 180 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
8A. Santos
6J. Baas
10Vito van Crooij
11S. Mito
9T. Lauritsen
7M. van Bergen
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
14A. Meijers
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
32Y. Leliendal
6A. Plat
17J. Ideho
7O. Kökçü
77B. Ould-Chikh
10B. Kuwas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FC Volendam-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.54
FC Volendam · Away
0.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-10
- Scored
- 0.54
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | L 0–4 AD 3–3 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Telstar | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | L 1–5 H | D 1–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 35 of 78 · 1.35 per game | 27 of 78 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 21 Dec 2025FC Volendam0–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 12 Nov 2023FC Volendam1–4Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 2.81 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.60 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.04 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.24 | 6.84 | |
| Match total | 11.28 | 10.44 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 22/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 17/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 15/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.93 | 3.48 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.63 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 6.89 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 9.89 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Edwin Van de Graaf Netherlands · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.24
Red cards0.41league 0.18
Cards 5+41%league 28%
Fouls20.5league 21.4
Penalties0.32league 0.24
Home wins36%league 44%
Sparta Rotterdam2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Sep 24H · GO Ahead Eagles1–21
- W2 Dec 23A · Heracles1–00
FC Volendam3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Jan 24H · Fortuna Sittard0–12
- L21 Oct 23A · Waalwijk1–22
- L19 Aug 23A · GO Ahead Eagles1–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam27 games · scored 33 · conceded 47
3
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
13
61-75
12
12
76-90
FC Volendam27 games · scored 30 · conceded 46
2
10
0-15
2
6
16-30
7
9
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
5
61-75
8
9
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
