Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 26). Sparta Rotterdam had 7.9 days of rest, Feyenoord 14.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.9 · 14.8Matches / 14d2 · 0
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Feyenoord52%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Feyenoord51%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Feyenoord52%
Sparta Rotterdam17%
Draw23%
Feyenoord60%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw25%
Feyenoord51%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 68
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
32
AttackIn forecast
76
17
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamFeyenoord
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
2.53
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
18.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
39%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
66%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
—
20.33
Shots allowedContext
7.50
7.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
5.00
BlocksContext
2.50
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
61%
Save rateContext
50%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
340
PassesContext
472
263
Accurate passesContext
389
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.06
6.33
FoulsContext
9.00
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.70
ShotsContext
15.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
38%
On target shareContext
39%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
66%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.83
OffsidesContext
—
18.90
Shots allowedContext
10.90
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
5.30
BlocksContext
2.50
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
67%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
362
PassesContext
408
289
Accurate passesContext
335
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.00
FoulsContext
9.40
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 14.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
2S. Sambo
3M. Young
4R. Martins Indi
5P. van Aanholt
10J. Toornstra
6J. Kitolano
8P. Clement
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
11S. Ltaief
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
2B. Nieuwkoop
21A. Ahmedhodžić
4T. Watanabe
15J. Bos
40L. Valente
8Q. Timber
23A. Hadj Moussa
14S. Steijn
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Feyenoord+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Feyenoord · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws2 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 8 Feb 2025Feyenoord3–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 25 Aug 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–1Feyenoord
- 11 Feb 2024Feyenoord2–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 20 Aug 2023Sparta Rotterdam2–2Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.34 | 9.00 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 2.00 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 8.70 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 3.39
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+44%league 35%
Fouls23.1league 22.6
Penalties0.29league 0.16
Home wins46%league 55%
Sparta Rotterdam7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L18 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- D7 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–12
- L8 Feb 25A · Feyenoord0–30
- D11 Jan 25A · Heracles1–13
- L7 Dec 24H · NAC Breda0–23
Feyenoord7 with this referee
Record6-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W16 Mar 25A · Twente6–23
- W8 Feb 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–00
- L22 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–33
- W6 Oct 24H · Twente2–12
- W21 Jan 24A · Vitesse2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam3 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Feyenoord2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
5
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
