Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · 17 pts · 14 played
WLLDL
1–0Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 12 pts · 14 played
DWLLL
Sparta Rotterdam49.8%fair odds 2.01
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
NAC Breda24.9%fair odds 4.02
Expected goals1.68 – 1.13total 2.81
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.32
- 2–19.6%10.40
- 1–09.5%10.49
- 2–08.5%11.72
- 0–06.6%15.10
- 1–26.4%15.56
- 0–16.2%16.20
- 2–25.4%18.47
- 3–15.4%18.53
- 3–04.8%20.87
Winning margin
11.7%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 8.54
15.4%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 6.50
22.7%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 4.40
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
15.0%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 6.67
6.9%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 14.53
3.0%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 33.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
NAC Breda goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 49.8% | 49.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.7% | -0.4 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 24.9% | 24.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 51.6% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.6% | 54.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.68 | 1.64 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.13 | 1.10 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win49.8%2.01
- Draw25.3%3.95
- NAC Breda win24.9%4.02
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw75.1%1.33
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or NAC Breda74.7%1.34
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw50.2%1.99
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam66.7%1.50
- Draw no bet NAC Breda33.3%3.00
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.22
- Over 4.515.4%6.50
- Under 1.522.3%4.48
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes55.6%1.80
- No44.4%2.25
- Yes and over 2.543.6%2.29
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes24.0%4.17
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- NAC Breda win and yes12.9%7.74
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.581.4%1.23
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.550.2%1.99
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.523.9%4.19
- NAC Breda over 0.567.6%1.48
- NAC Breda over 1.531.1%3.22
- NAC Breda over 2.510.5%9.53
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet32.4%3.08
- NAC Breda clean sheet18.6%5.39
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil25.8%3.88
- NAC Breda win to nil11.9%8.38
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.527.1%3.69
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.511.7%8.54
- NAC Breda +1.572.9%1.37
- NAC Breda +2.588.3%1.13
- NAC Breda −1.59.9%10.13
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.590.1%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored134
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right65.7%
BTTS called right63.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.0% | 24.0% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 44.9% | 44.7% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 55.4% | 54.8% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.1% | 70.6% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 75.0% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 83.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 111 of 134 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5701 | 0.5554 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 55.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 111 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 134 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.