Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · 17 pts · 14 played
WLLDL
1–0Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 12 pts · 14 played
DWLLL
Our take
Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.
Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 15). Sparta Rotterdam had 7.8 days of rest, NAC Breda 8 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days7.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam50%
Draw25%
NAC Breda25%
Sparta Rotterdam50%
Draw26%
NAC Breda24%
Sparta Rotterdam50%
Draw25%
NAC Breda24%
Sparta Rotterdam42%
Draw27%
NAC Breda31%
Sparta Rotterdam50%
Draw26%
NAC Breda25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 45
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamNAC Breda
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
32
AttackIn forecast
19
17
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamNAC Breda
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
71%
Scored inContext
64%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.57
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.15
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.93
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
6.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.07
4.57
BlocksContext
3.00
4.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
66%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
375
PassesContext
385
297
Accurate passesContext
303
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.21
FoulsContext
11.86
9.93
Fouls sufferedContext
13.29
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.21
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
29%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
67%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
10.20
6.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.30
BlocksContext
2.11
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
394
PassesContext
407
315
Accurate passesContext
323
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.10
FoulsContext
11.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km189 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 189 km | 85 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5M. Kleijn
4T. Quintero
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8J. Kitolano
6J. Baas
11S. Mito
10A. Santos
7A. Oufkir
9T. Lauritsen
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
32J. Talvitie
90L. Holtby
16M. Balard
10M. Nassoh
14K. Sowah
11R. Paula
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- NAC Breda+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.14
NAC Breda · Away
0.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Ajax | D 3–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Twente | L 1–5 H | D 2–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws1 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 7 Mar 2025NAC Breda1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 7 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.71 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.71 | 3.93 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.57 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 93% 13/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 10/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 4.21 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 9.20 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.24league 3.37
Red cards0.07league 0.22
Cards 5+11%league 33%
Fouls17.2league 21.9
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins56%league 47%
Sparta Rotterdam2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D4 Oct 25H · Ajax3–31
- L9 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–61
NAC Breda4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L24 Aug 25A · NEC Nijmegen0–34
- D14 Mar 25A · Almere City FC1–10
- L9 Feb 25A · Waalwijk0–51
- L21 Dec 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam14 games · scored 16 · conceded 28
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
8
61-75
4
4
76-90
NAC Breda14 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
