Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
8th · 37 pts · 25 played
WDDLL
First leg0–1
1–1Full time
PEC Zwolle
13th · 28 pts · 25 played
WLLDD
Our take
Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Sparta Rotterdam had 7.8 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7 and had to travel 128 km.
Away travel128 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sparta Rotterdam48%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle26%
Sparta Rotterdam47%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle27%
Sparta Rotterdam46%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle27%
Sparta Rotterdam40%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle33%
Sparta Rotterdam47%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 34
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamPEC Zwolle
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
32
AttackIn forecast
17
17
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamPEC Zwolle
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
84%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.56
ShotsContext
9.00
4.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.24
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
67%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.05
15.68
Shots allowedContext
16.32
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
4.56
BlocksContext
4.08
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
69%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
393
PassesContext
367
314
Accurate passesContext
288
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.92
FoulsContext
10.92
10.64
Fouls sufferedContext
11.92
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
9.90
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
43%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
65%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.80
BlocksContext
3.80
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
74%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
422
PassesContext
392
341
Accurate passesContext
310
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.70
FoulsContext
11.90
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km464 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel128 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 128 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 464 km | 162 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.4 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5M. Kleijn
4R. Martins Indi
3T. Quintero
2S. Sambo
8J. Kitolano
6P. Clement
11S. Mito
10A. Santos
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
5T. Velthuis
6T. Gooijer
8Z. Buurmeester
30R. Thomas
7S. Shoretire
25T. Oosting
9Y. Namli
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- PEC Zwolle-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.58
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-7
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 2.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Feyenoord | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H | L 1–6 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 2–8 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Telstar | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Ajax | D 3–3 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Twente | L 1–5 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 37 of 72 · 1.54 per game | 25 of 72 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws3 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.20
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 8 Nov 2025PEC Zwolle1–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 15 Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–1PEC Zwolle
- 30 Nov 2024PEC Zwolle1–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 4 Feb 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2PEC Zwolle
- 12 Aug 2023PEC Zwolle1–2Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 3.36 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 68% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.43 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 9.40 | 10.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 96% 22/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 74% 17/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 65% 15/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.12 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.44 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.13 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 12.26 | 10.70 | 10.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.90 | 3.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.38league 3.27
Red cards0.29league 0.18
Cards 5+18%league 29%
Fouls18.7league 21.5
Penalties0.29league 0.25
Home wins44%league 45%
Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L19 Sep 25H · Twente1–50
- D15 Dec 24A · NEC Nijmegen1–12
- D17 Dec 23H · Twente2–23
PEC Zwolle2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 26A · NEC Nijmegen1–22
- L25 Nov 23H · Waalwijk1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam25 games · scored 32 · conceded 42
3
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
12
61-75
11
10
76-90
PEC Zwolle24 games · scored 34 · conceded 48
9
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
10
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
6
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
