Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam39.2%fair odds 2.55
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Twente34.0%fair odds 2.94
Expected goals1.43 – 1.31total 2.74
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · Twente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns Twente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.85
- 2–18.6%11.59
- 1–08.6%11.67
- 1–27.9%12.58
- 0–17.8%12.76
- 0–07.1%14.09
- 2–06.6%15.22
- 2–25.7%17.64
- 0–25.6%17.95
- 3–14.1%24.37
Winning margin
7.0%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 14.19
11.8%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 8.50
20.4%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 4.91
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
18.7%
Twente by 1
fair 5.35
10.0%
Twente by 2
fair 10.02
5.3%
Twente by 3+
fair 18.75
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
Twente goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 39.2% | 39.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Twente win | 34.0% | 33.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 49.8% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 54.8% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.43 | 1.40 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Twente | 1.31 | 1.26 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win39.2%2.55
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Twente win34.0%2.94
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw66.0%1.52
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or Twente73.2%1.37
- Double chance Twente or draw60.8%1.64
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam53.5%1.87
- Draw no bet Twente46.5%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.5%1.31
- Over 2.551.6%1.94
- Over 3.529.5%3.39
- Over 4.514.3%6.98
- Under 1.523.5%4.26
- Under 2.548.4%2.07
- Under 3.570.5%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.28
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes19.4%5.16
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Twente win and yes17.1%5.85
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.576.0%1.32
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.541.7%2.40
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.517.3%5.78
- Twente over 0.573.1%1.37
- Twente over 1.537.8%2.65
- Twente over 2.514.6%6.85
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet26.9%3.72
- Twente clean sheet24.0%4.16
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil19.8%5.05
- Twente win to nil16.9%5.91
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.518.8%5.32
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.57.0%14.19
- Twente +1.581.2%1.23
- Twente +2.593.0%1.08
- Twente −1.515.3%6.53
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.584.7%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won59.1%
Avg chance given to result45.4%
1X2 Brier0.525
Over 2.5 called right65.9%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.3% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 56.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 63.2% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.6% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 22 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4955 | 0.4629 |
| Avg chance given to result | 47.0% | 49.9% |
| Favourite won | 59.1% | 68.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 22 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.