Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Sparta Rotterdam had 5.3 days of rest, Twente 6 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days5.3 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam39%
Draw27%
Twente34%
Sparta Rotterdam40%
Draw27%
Twente33%
Sparta Rotterdam39%
Draw27%
Twente34%
Sparta Rotterdam32%
Draw27%
Twente41%
Sparta Rotterdam40%
Draw27%
Twente33%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 25
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
32
AttackIn forecast
41
17
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamTwente
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.88
80%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.40
ShotsContext
17.20
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
37%
On target shareContext
31%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
67%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
20.40
Shots allowedContext
12.20
7.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
6.00
BlocksContext
4.40
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
66%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
339
PassesContext
450
260
Accurate passesContext
353
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.79
6.40
FoulsContext
14.00
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
13.50
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
66%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.86
21.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
6.40
BlocksContext
4.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
355
PassesContext
421
277
Accurate passesContext
335
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.00
FoulsContext
11.50
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel168 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5P. van Aanholt
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
6J. Kitolano
8P. Clement
10J. Toornstra
11S. Ltaief
9T. Lauritsen
7M. van Bergen
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
42D. Weidmann
14K. Hlynsson
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
9R. van Wolfswinkel
11D. Rots
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Twente-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Twente · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 4 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–2Twente
- 17 Aug 2024Twente1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 Dec 2023Sparta Rotterdam2–2Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.20 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.20 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.40 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 8.60 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.60 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.75 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 9.10 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.48league 3.41
Red cards0.36league 0.20
Cards 5+20%league 36%
Fouls18.4league 22.8
Penalties0.20league 0.16
Home wins44%league 48%
Sparta Rotterdam2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D15 Dec 24A · NEC Nijmegen1–12
- D17 Dec 23H · Twente2–23
Twente4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W29 Sep 24H · NAC Breda1–02
- L20 Jan 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–12
- D17 Dec 23A · Sparta Rotterdam2–21
- W8 Oct 23A · Fortuna Sittard3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam5 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Twente5 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
3
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
