Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 25). Sporting CP had 5.1 days of rest, Alverca 7 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days5.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP78%
Draw15%
Alverca7%
Sporting CP79%
Draw14%
Alverca7%
Sporting CP78%
Draw15%
Alverca7%
Sporting CP72%
Draw18%
Alverca10%
Sporting CP79%
Draw15%
Alverca7%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 69
Team strength
Sporting CP
Alverca
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
75
AttackIn forecast
38
81
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPAlverca
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
2.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
100%
Scored inContext
78%
56%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
19.11
ShotsContext
8.33
7.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
39%
On target shareContext
43%
12.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.22
67%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.57
7.56
Shots allowedContext
12.11
2.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.22
BlocksContext
3.56
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
515
PassesContext
347
445
Accurate passesContext
278
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.00
FoulsContext
13.11
14.22
Fouls sufferedContext
15.11
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
2.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
100%
Scored inContext
78%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
16.90
ShotsContext
8.33
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
38%
On target shareContext
43%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.22
63%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.57
8.50
Shots allowedContext
12.11
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.50
BlocksContext
3.56
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
502
PassesContext
347
432
Accurate passesContext
278
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.40
FoulsContext
13.11
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.11
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 439 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
52João Simões
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
55Francisco Chissumba
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
2Zoubdi
11Cedric Nuozzi
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
18Lincoln
9M. Milovanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Alverca · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 78% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Sporting CP | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 78% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.44 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 7.17 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 6.22 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Sporting CP | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 7.17 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 6.22 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.99league 5.17
Red cards0.42league 0.26
Cards 5+55%league 63%
Fouls27.9league 27.8
Penalties0.35league 0.47
Home wins61%league 37%
Sporting CP8 with this referee
Record7-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W13 Sep 25A · Famalicao2–13
- W2 Feb 25H · Farense3–11
- L5 Dec 24A · Moreirense1–21
- W17 Mar 24H · Boavista6–12
- W11 Feb 24H · SC Braga5–00
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
1
76-90
Alverca9 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
Alverca9 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
