Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 30). Absences weigh more on Sporting CP. Sporting CP had 9 days of rest, Arouca 8 and had to travel 257 km.
Away travel257 kmRest days9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP75%
Draw17%
Arouca9%
Sporting CP76%
Draw16%
Arouca8%
Sporting CP76%
Draw16%
Arouca8%
Sporting CP68%
Draw20%
Arouca12%
Sporting CP75%
Draw17%
Arouca9%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 45
Team strength
Sporting CP
Arouca
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
75
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
37
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPArouca
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
11.30
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
45%
On target shareContext
39%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
62%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.33
7.10
Shots allowedContext
12.40
1.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
2.88
BlocksContext
4.00
1.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
73%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
482
PassesContext
394
414
Accurate passesContext
315
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.21
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.40
FoulsContext
13.90
16.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km141 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel257 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Aug | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 257 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 141 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Arouca
Confirmed XI
1João Valido(G)
44A. Dante
3José Fontán
5B. Popović
78Alex Pinto
21T. Fukui
89Pedro Santos
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
23D. Nandin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Arouca+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
No home games yet this season.
Arouca · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Sporting CP wins2 draws1 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.83 – 0.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 15 Feb 2025Sporting CP2–2Arouca
- 13 Sep 2024Arouca0–3Sporting CP
- 10 Mar 2024Arouca0–3Sporting CP
- 8 Oct 2023Sporting CP2–1Arouca
- 16 Apr 2023Sporting CP1–1Arouca
- 29 Oct 2022Arouca1–0Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Sporting CP | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.00 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Sporting CP | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.89 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 9.00 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 5.00 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.69league 5.13
Red cards0.29league 0.07
Cards 5+69%league 60%
Fouls29.2league 29.4
Penalties0.42league 0.40
Home wins49%league 40%
Sporting CP3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W9 Mar 25A · Casa Pia3–13
- L8 Jan 23A · Maritimo0–14
- W22 Oct 22H · Casa Pia3–12
Arouca4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D20 Aug 23A · Vizela2–27
- L15 May 23A · Estoril0–22
- W11 Mar 23A · Guimaraes2–03
- D2 Oct 22A · Pacos Ferreira1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Arouca1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
