Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sporting CP. Sporting CP had 7.9 days of rest, Benfica 7 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sporting CP48%
Draw28%
Benfica25%
Sporting CP48%
Draw26%
Benfica26%
Sporting CP48%
Draw28%
Benfica25%
Sporting CP41%
Draw29%
Benfica31%
Sporting CP48%
Draw28%
Benfica25%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 99
Team strength
Sporting CP
Benfica
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
75
AttackIn forecast
81
81
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPBenfica
2.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.62
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
93%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
17.36
ShotsContext
16.59
6.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.83
38%
On target shareContext
35%
11.61
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
66%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.20
8.00
Shots allowedContext
8.52
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.07
2.50
BlocksContext
2.41
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.54
80%
Save rateContext
81%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
531
PassesContext
483
466
Accurate passesContext
411
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.39
FoulsContext
10.79
13.89
Fouls sufferedContext
15.66
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.74
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.20
ShotsContext
15.80
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
39%
On target shareContext
30%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
70%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.67
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.38
BlocksContext
3.20
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
74%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
534
PassesContext
452
468
Accurate passesContext
377
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.10
FoulsContext
9.40
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km141 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 15 km | 141 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
72Eduardo Quaresma
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
17A. Dedić
20Richard Ríos
8F. Aursnes
21A. Schjelderup
18L. Barreiro
25G. Prestianni
9F. Ivanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-1
- Scored
- 3.08
- Conceded
- 0.46
Benfica · Away
2.43points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-4-0
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 0.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Alverca | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Porto | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | W 2–1 AW 5–0 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| AVS | W 6–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 70 of 81 · 2.59 per game | 68 of 84 · 2.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Sporting CP wins4 draws1 Benfica wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 5 Dec 2025Benfica1–1Sporting CP
- 10 May 2025Benfica1–1Sporting CP
- 29 Dec 2024Sporting CP1–0Benfica
- 6 Apr 2024Sporting CP2–1Benfica
- 12 Nov 2023Benfica2–1Sporting CP
- 21 May 2023Sporting CP2–2Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.61 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.61 | 0.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 2.72 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 66% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 52% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 7% | |
| Games | 28 | 29 |
| Sporting CP | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.60 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.72 | 7.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 9.83 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 18/25 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.82 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 5.17 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 18/28 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 16/28 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Sporting CP | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 8.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 11.50 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.30 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.51league 4.79
Red cards0.22league 0.24
Cards 5+47%league 57%
Fouls25.7league 26.9
Penalties0.26league 0.42
Home wins41%league 41%
Sporting CP8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W22 Mar 26A · Alverca4–12
- D10 May 25A · Benfica1–12
- D7 Feb 25A · FC Porto1–16
- W13 Sep 24A · Arouca3–00
- L9 Dec 23A · Guimaraes2–32
Benfica16 with this referee
Record9-4-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds3
- D8 Mar 26H · FC Porto2–24
- W1 Nov 25A · Guimaraes3–04
- D12 Sep 25H · Santa Clara1–11
- D10 May 25H · Sporting CP1–14
- W6 Apr 25A · FC Porto4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP28 games · scored 73 · conceded 17
5
3
0-15
9
2
16-30
17
1
31-45
12
2
46-60
11
2
61-75
19
7
76-90
Benfica28 games · scored 56 · conceded 18
5
4
0-15
10
1
16-30
12
4
31-45
11
3
46-60
7
1
61-75
11
5
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
5
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
