Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel22 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sporting CP—%
Draw—%
Estoril—%
Weather (Lisboa)
Forecast from 5 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sporting CP and Estoril. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Estoril
−0.73
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.75
-
Alert
Estoril
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Estoril
3
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sporting CP
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Estoril
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estoril
−0.73
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.75
Streaks
-
Streak
Sporting CP
10+
Unbeaten in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Sporting CP
10+
Scoring in a row
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Streak
Estoril
3
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Team strength
Sporting CPEstoril
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
75
AttackIn forecast
21
81
DefenceIn forecast
29
83
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPEstoril
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
100%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.88
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
44%
On target shareContext
39%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
67%
Box shareContext
60%
20%
ConversionContext
4%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.13
Shots allowedContext
13.75
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.14
BlocksContext
3.86
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
73%
Save rateContext
61%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
550
PassesContext
402
488
Accurate passesContext
322
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.50
FoulsContext
10.88
13.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
100%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
45%
On target shareContext
38%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
66%
Box shareContext
61%
21%
ConversionContext
5%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.33
BlocksContext
3.78
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
58%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
521
PassesContext
411
457
Accurate passesContext
333
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.70
FoulsContext
11.00
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,361 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Estoril
LDLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,361 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Estoril
Last XI · not confirmed
1Joel Robles(G)
5A. Tsoungui
6Xavi Sintes
35S. Amissah
21R. Jurišić
10J. Holsgrove
44M. Robin
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
99R. Guitane
7André Lacximicant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Estoril
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Estoril · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | W 3–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Arouca | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nacional | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 11 of 15 · 2.20 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
8 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Estoril wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 27 Feb 2026Sporting CP3–0Estoril
- 27 Sep 2025Estoril0–1Sporting CP
- 3 Mar 2025Sporting CP3–1Estoril
- 27 Sep 2024Estoril0–3Sporting CP
- 11 May 2024Estoril0–1Sporting CP
- 5 Jan 2024Sporting CP5–1Estoril
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 38% | |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Sporting CP | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.29 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 6.86 | 9.71 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.38 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 3.76 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Sporting CP | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 6.89 | 9.67 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Estoril8 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
