Nacional vs Moreirense

Primeira Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 20 · 16:00 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional 16th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,230 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Nacional—%

Draw—%

Moreirense—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

Forecast from 5 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Nacional 6 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Nacional

Moreirense

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

17 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

15 AttackIn forecast 17

13 DefenceIn forecast 27

5 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nacional

Moreirense

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 0.51

1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

63% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

11.00 ShotsContext 7.88

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 4.25

60% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

14.63 Shots allowedContext 15.13

6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.14 BlocksContext 3.88

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

58% Save rateContext 58%

50% PossessionIn forecast 36%

406 PassesContext 324

334 Accurate passesContext 244

82% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.48

11.13 FoulsContext 13.63

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 0.53

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

60% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.50 ShotsContext 8.50

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

28% On target shareContext 33%

6.78 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

60% Box shareContext 54%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.00

14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.22 BlocksContext 4.00

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

63% Save rateContext 56%

49% PossessionIn forecast 41%

390 PassesContext 364

317 Accurate passesContext 286

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.54

12.20 FoulsContext 12.70

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nacional LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,230 km566 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nacional	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,230 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	566 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Nacional Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rio Ave (A) 2–3, 11 Oct

1R. Bellucci(G)

21W. Kokolo 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 88Deivison

31D. Dongmo 15C. Labidi

12M. Song 20M. Djaló 10Daniel Júnior

29N. Kader

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nacional Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Moreirense Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Nacional · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Nacional	Moreirense
Guimaraes	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Nacional wins2 draws0 Moreirense wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

7 Mar 2026Moreirense1–1Nacional
4 Oct 2025Nacional3–2Moreirense
27 Apr 2025Moreirense1–1Nacional
14 Dec 2024Nacional1–0Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nacional	Moreirense
Scored per game	1.13	1.00
Conceded per game	2.25	1.88
Match goals	3.38	2.88
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	63%
Over 3.5	63%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	38%	38%
Games	8	8

	Nacional	Moreirense
Scored per game	1.10	0.80
Conceded per game	2.00	1.70
Match goals	3.10	2.50
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nacional	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	2.50
Corners conceded	4.33	4.88
Match total	9.83	7.38	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/8
Cards
Cards	1.38	2.75
Opponent cards	2.63	1.88
Match total	4.01	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Nacional	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	3.30
Corners conceded	4.50	4.30
Match total	9.63	7.60	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.60
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	4.20	4.40	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.