Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were slight favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 67). Sporting CP had 7.1 days of rest, FC Porto 6.1 and had to travel 273 km.
Away travel273 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sporting CP55%
Draw24%
FC Porto21%
Sporting CP54%
Draw25%
FC Porto21%
Sporting CP55%
Draw24%
FC Porto21%
Sporting CP47%
Draw26%
FC Porto27%
Sporting CP54%
Draw25%
FC Porto21%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Goncalves
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Sporting CP
FC Porto
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
75
AttackIn forecast
74
81
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPFC Porto
4.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
2.83
xGVia Att/Def
2.08
0.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
+1.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.92
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
24.00
ShotsContext
17.33
9.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
39%
On target shareContext
39%
16.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.33
66%
Box shareContext
71%
17%
ConversionContext
17%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
5.33
Shots allowedContext
9.67
1.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
BlocksContext
3.33
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
100%
Save rateContext
75%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
531
PassesContext
465
465
Accurate passesContext
408
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.31
Team ratingContext
7.13
8.33
FoulsContext
16.00
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
8.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
100%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
17.50
ShotsContext
13.60
7.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
42%
On target shareContext
37%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
58%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.60
6.40
Shots allowedContext
9.50
1.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.63
BlocksContext
2.67
1.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
78%
Save rateContext
66%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
494
PassesContext
490
426
Accurate passesContext
427
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.22
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.00
FoulsContext
15.50
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
FC Porto
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel273 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 273 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,944 km | 85 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
14G. Kochorashvili
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
5J. Bednarek
18P. Pérez
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
26L. de Jong
7William Gomes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 6.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Sporting CP wins2 draws2 FC Porto wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 7 Feb 2025FC Porto1–1Sporting CP
- 31 Aug 2024Sporting CP2–0FC Porto
- 28 Apr 2024FC Porto2–2Sporting CP
- 18 Dec 2023Sporting CP2–0FC Porto
- 12 Feb 2023Sporting CP1–2FC Porto
- 20 Aug 2022FC Porto3–0Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Sporting CP | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.33 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.66 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.67 | 5.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Sporting CP | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.67 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.50 | 5.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Goncalves Portugal · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 5.00
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+100%league 62%
Fouls20.0league 28.7
Penalties1.00league 0.31
Home wins0%league 38%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP3 games · scored 12 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
FC Porto3 games · scored 9 · conceded 0
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 27 · conceded 5
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
7
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
