Sporting CP vs Galatasaray – 9 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 9 · 20:00 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa

Sporting CP

3–1Full time

Galatasaray

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were slight favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Galatasaray. Sporting CP had 4 days of rest, Galatasaray 5.1 and had to travel 3,236 km.

Away travel3,236 kmRest days4 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sporting CP52%

Draw22%

Galatasaray26%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.26

Sporting CP55%

Draw23%

Galatasaray21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Sporting CP51%

Draw23%

Galatasaray26%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.27

Sporting CP44%

Draw24%

Galatasaray32%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.41

Sporting CP51%

Draw23%

Galatasaray26%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.19

Over 2.5 61% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · NorwayEspen Eskas

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 30

Team strength

Sporting CP

Galatasaray

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

75 AttackIn forecast 57

81 DefenceIn forecast 55

77 Form indexContext 75

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Galatasaray

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sporting CP

Galatasaray

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.08 xGVia Att/Def 2.24

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

+0.82 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

100% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.30 ShotsContext 18.40

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

44% On target shareContext 35%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

68% Box shareContext 69%

20% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.11

9.20 Shots allowedContext 8.90

2.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.00 BlocksContext 2.63

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

73% Save rateContext 63%

62% PossessionIn forecast 61%

566 PassesContext 489

503 Accurate passesContext 425

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.30 FoulsContext 11.40

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sporting CP DWWWW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km589 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 77 · 13 pts vs 9.6 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W5 SepH · Nacional2–02.6 xPts
W28 AugA · Rio Ave4–02.2 xPts
W22 AugH · Alverca3–12.4 xPts
W14 AugH · Guimaraes3–22.4 xPts
D8 AugA · Estrela2–22.3 xPts

Galatasaray DWWW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel3,236 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 75 · 10 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W4 SepA · Istanbul Basaksehir3–21.8 xPts
W29 AugH · Goztepe3–22.3 xPts
W21 AugA · Erzurumspor FK4–01.9 xPts
D14 AugH · Çorum FK2–22.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sporting CP	Galatasaray
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep	5.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 4 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	3,236 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	589 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 13G. Vagiannidis

77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira

31Luis Guilherme 17R. Zalazar 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Galatasaray Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1U. Çakır(G)

17E. Elmalı 4I. Jakobs 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai

8Gabriel Sara 34L. Torreira

11Y. Akgün 83A. Batrakov 10L. Sané

53B. Yılmaz

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sporting CP Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Galatasaray Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sporting CP+1.0 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Galatasaray-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Sporting CP · Home No home games yet this season.

Galatasaray · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sporting CP	Galatasaray	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.14
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	61%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	61%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Sporting CP	Galatasaray	Forecast
Scored per game	2.90	2.30
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	3.90	3.80	3.14
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	61%
Over 3.5	70%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sporting CP	Galatasaray	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.13
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.88
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Sporting CP	Galatasaray	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	5.40
Corners conceded	3.75	2.40
Match total	7.88	7.80	10.13
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.90
Opponent cards	2.60	2.10
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.88
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Espen Eskas Norway · 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.75

Red cards0.13league 0.13

Cards 5+43%league 25%

Fouls22.3league 24.9

Penalties0.47league 0.25

Home wins50%league 63%

Sporting CP1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Feb 25H · Borussia Dortmund0–31

Galatasaray1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L27 Aug 24H · BSC Young Boys0–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.