Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP51.4%fair odds 1.94
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.24
Galatasaray25.0%fair odds 4.00
Expected goals1.88 – 1.26total 3.14
Likeliest score1–110.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · Galatasaray → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns Galatasaray goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%9.27
- 2–19.6%10.37
- 2–07.7%13.05
- 1–07.6%13.16
- 1–26.4%15.51
- 2–26.1%16.48
- 3–16.0%16.53
- 0–14.9%20.40
- 0–04.9%20.54
- 3–04.8%20.81
Winning margin
13.7%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 7.28
15.8%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 6.32
21.9%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.57
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.24
14.5%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 6.91
7.1%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 14.14
3.4%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 29.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Sporting CP goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Galatasaray goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 51.4% | 50.5% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Galatasaray win | 25.0% | 25.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 56.9% | +3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.2% | 58.3% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 1.88 | 1.78 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 1.26 | 1.19 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win51.4%1.94
- Draw23.6%4.24
- Galatasaray win25.0%4.00
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw75.0%1.33
- Double chance Sporting CP or Galatasaray76.4%1.31
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw48.6%2.06
- Draw no bet Sporting CP67.3%1.49
- Draw no bet Galatasaray32.7%3.06
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.6%1.21
- Over 2.560.8%1.65
- Over 3.538.4%2.60
- Over 4.520.9%4.79
- Under 1.517.4%5.76
- Under 2.539.2%2.55
- Under 3.561.6%1.62
Both teams to score
- Yes61.2%1.63
- No38.8%2.58
- Yes and over 2.550.4%1.98
- Sporting CP win and yes27.9%3.58
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- Galatasaray win and yes14.6%6.84
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.584.8%1.18
- Sporting CP over 1.556.1%1.78
- Sporting CP over 2.529.1%3.43
- Galatasaray over 0.571.6%1.40
- Galatasaray over 1.535.8%2.79
- Galatasaray over 2.513.3%7.49
- Sporting CP clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Galatasaray clean sheet15.2%6.57
- Sporting CP win to nil23.5%4.25
- Galatasaray win to nil10.4%9.65
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.529.5%3.38
- Sporting CP −2.513.7%7.28
- Galatasaray +1.570.5%1.42
- Galatasaray +2.586.3%1.16
- Galatasaray −1.510.5%9.51
- Sporting CP +1.589.5%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored7
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result56.1%
1X2 Brier0.355
Over 2.5 called right85.7%
BTTS called right85.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 3 | 45.6% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 55.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 7 of 7 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3548 | 0.3368 |
| Avg chance given to result | 56.1% | 57.3% |
| Favourite won | 71.4% | 71.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 7 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 7 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.