Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GIL Vicente. Sporting CP had 5 days of rest, GIL Vicente 5 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days5 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sporting CP75%
Draw17%
GIL Vicente9%
Sporting CP77%
Draw16%
GIL Vicente8%
Sporting CP75%
Draw17%
GIL Vicente9%
Sporting CP68%
Draw20%
GIL Vicente12%
Sporting CP74%
Draw17%
GIL Vicente9%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 92
Team strength
Sporting CP
GIL Vicente
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
75
AttackIn forecast
32
81
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPGIL Vicente
2.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
0.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
76%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
17.12
ShotsContext
13.52
6.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.72
38%
On target shareContext
34%
11.55
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
67%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.05
OffsidesContext
1.81
8.52
Shots allowedContext
10.06
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.68
2.55
BlocksContext
2.68
2.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
79%
Save rateContext
71%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
534
PassesContext
367
469
Accurate passesContext
298
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.03
FoulsContext
13.15
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.27
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.30
ShotsContext
12.60
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
39%
On target shareContext
35%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
68%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.44
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.78
BlocksContext
3.50
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
74%
Save rateContext
65%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
539
PassesContext
381
477
Accurate passesContext
313
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.90
FoulsContext
12.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km589 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel315 km45 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 589 km | 45 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 84 | 85 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
13G. Vagiannidis
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
11Joelson Fernandes
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-2-2
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.69
GIL Vicente · Away
1.25points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-8-4
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | W 4–1 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| AVS | D 1–1 AW 6–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Estrela | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Alverca | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| FC Porto | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 78 of 96 · 2.44 per game | 49 of 96 · 1.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Sporting CP wins3 draws0 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.86 – 0.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 2 Jan 2026GIL Vicente1–1Sporting CP
- 4 May 2025Sporting CP2–1GIL Vicente
- 22 Dec 2024GIL Vicente0–0Sporting CP
- 12 Apr 2024GIL Vicente0–4Sporting CP
- 4 Dec 2023Sporting CP3–1GIL Vicente
- 5 Apr 2023GIL Vicente0–0Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.61 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.73 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.48 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 52% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 48% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Sporting CP | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.70 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.31 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.45 | 4.34 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 9.93 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 21/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 16/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 11/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.85 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 5.09 | 4.93 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 20/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 18/33 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Sporting CP | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.55 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.30 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.87league 4.78
Red cards0.21league 0.24
Cards 5+57%league 57%
Fouls28.2league 26.6
Penalties0.28league 0.43
Home wins39%league 41%
Sporting CP11 with this referee
Record8-3-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against6 · 0
- D9 Feb 26A · FC Porto1–15
- W27 Sep 25A · Estoril1–02
- D7 Apr 25H · SC Braga1–13
- W18 Jan 25A · Rio Ave3–01
- W10 Nov 24A · SC Braga4–24
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D8 Mar 26A · Estrela2–22
- W30 Dec 23H · Boavista1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP33 games · scored 86 · conceded 24
6
4
0-15
10
3
16-30
20
1
31-45
13
2
46-60
16
3
61-75
21
11
76-90
GIL Vicente33 games · scored 47 · conceded 35
8
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
14
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
9
61-75
11
7
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
