Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP74.5%fair odds 1.34
Draw16.7%fair odds 6.00
GIL Vicente8.8%fair odds 11.32
Expected goals2.42 – 0.73total 3.15
Likeliest score2–012.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · GIL Vicente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns GIL Vicente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%7.95
- 3–010.2%9.83
- 1–010.0%10.02
- 2–19.1%10.94
- 1–17.9%12.60
- 3–17.4%13.54
- 4–06.2%16.22
- 0–04.7%21.36
- 4–14.5%22.33
- 2–23.3%30.13
Winning margin
30.5%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 3.28
21.8%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.59
22.2%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.50
16.7%
Draw
fair 6.00
6.4%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 15.68
2.0%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 51.13
0.5%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 200.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Sporting CP goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
GIL Vicente goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 74.5% | 74.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 16.7% | 16.6% | +0.1 pp |
| GIL Vicente win | 8.8% | 9.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 61.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.5% | 48.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.42 | 2.44 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 0.73 | 0.74 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win74.5%1.34
- Draw16.7%6.00
- GIL Vicente win8.8%11.32
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw91.2%1.10
- Double chance Sporting CP or GIL Vicente83.3%1.20
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw25.5%3.92
- Draw no bet Sporting CP89.4%1.12
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente10.6%9.44
Goals
- Over 0.595.3%1.05
- Over 1.582.6%1.21
- Over 2.561.0%1.64
- Over 3.538.7%2.59
- Over 4.521.1%4.75
- Under 1.517.4%5.76
- Under 2.539.0%2.56
- Under 3.561.3%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes47.5%2.11
- No52.5%1.90
- Yes and over 2.539.5%2.53
- Sporting CP win and yes30.8%3.25
- Draw and yes12.0%8.35
- GIL Vicente win and yes4.7%21.45
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.591.2%1.10
- Sporting CP over 1.569.7%1.43
- Sporting CP over 2.543.7%2.29
- GIL Vicente over 0.551.6%1.94
- GIL Vicente over 1.516.5%6.06
- GIL Vicente over 2.53.7%26.73
- Sporting CP clean sheet48.4%2.07
- GIL Vicente clean sheet8.8%11.30
- Sporting CP win to nil43.7%2.29
- GIL Vicente win to nil4.2%23.98
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.552.3%1.91
- Sporting CP −2.530.5%3.28
- GIL Vicente +1.547.7%2.10
- GIL Vicente +2.569.5%1.44
- GIL Vicente −1.52.5%40.76
- Sporting CP +1.597.5%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored303
Favourite won56.4%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.551
Over 2.5 called right57.4%
BTTS called right51.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 57 | 37.6% | 42.1% |
| 40–50% | 97 | 44.8% | 43.3% |
| 50–60% | 62 | 54.6% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 44 | 64.9% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 33 | 75.2% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 83.9% | 90.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 239 of 303 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5344 | 0.5278 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.5% | 46.0% |
| Favourite won | 59.8% | 59.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 233 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗GIL Vicente 1–3 Arouca46·27·27
- ✓Santa Clara 2–0 Nacional50·28·22
- ✓Rio Ave 1–4 Sporting CP16·22·62
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 303 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.