Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 32). Sporting CP had 9 days of rest, Moreirense 9.2 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days9 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP74%
Draw17%
Moreirense9%
Sporting CP74%
Draw17%
Moreirense9%
Sporting CP74%
Draw17%
Moreirense9%
Sporting CP68%
Draw20%
Moreirense12%
Sporting CP74%
Draw17%
Moreirense9%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Sporting CP
Moreirense
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
75
AttackIn forecast
17
81
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPMoreirense
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
2.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
19.80
ShotsContext
10.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
35%
On target shareContext
34%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
67%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.50
7.60
Shots allowedContext
10.80
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.20
BlocksContext
3.75
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
75%
Save rateContext
81%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
500
PassesContext
432
433
Accurate passesContext
365
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.00
FoulsContext
14.20
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.10
ShotsContext
9.60
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
37%
On target shareContext
43%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
61%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.63
7.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.88
BlocksContext
4.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
71%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
491
PassesContext
383
424
Accurate passesContext
320
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.90
FoulsContext
13.90
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km606 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 606 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
12João Virgínia(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
13G. Vagiannidis
14G. Kochorashvili
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
7G. Quenda
97L. Suárez
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
66G. Dambi Batista
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
15Vasco Sousa
8M. Stjepanović
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
7Cedric Teguia
95Guilherme Schettine
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Moreirense · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Sporting CP wins0 draws1 Moreirense wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 18 Apr 2025Sporting CP3–1Moreirense
- 5 Dec 2024Moreirense2–1Sporting CP
- 19 Feb 2024Moreirense0–2Sporting CP
- 17 Sep 2023Sporting CP3–0Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.40 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Sporting CP | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.40 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.75 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.80 | 5.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Sporting CP | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.11 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 5.00 | 5.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 4.98
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+100%league 60%
Fouls31.5league 27.8
Penalties0.50league 0.38
Home wins0%league 33%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
MoreirenseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP5 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
76-90
Moreirense5 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 29 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
5
46-60
7
3
61-75
8
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
