St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 28). St. Truiden had 15.1 days of rest, Anderlecht 14.2 and had to travel.
Rest days15.1 · 14.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
St. Truiden25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 27
Team strength
St. Truiden
Anderlecht
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
37
AttackIn forecast
37
32
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenAnderlecht
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.20
ShotsContext
14.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
32%
On target shareContext
36%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
68%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.75
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.20
BlocksContext
2.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
74%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
421
PassesContext
449
340
Accurate passesContext
365
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.70
FoulsContext
14.00
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
14.22
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
68%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.80
Shots allowedContext
12.11
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.20
BlocksContext
2.67
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
74%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
421
PassesContext
462
340
Accurate passesContext
381
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.70
FoulsContext
15.11
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.56
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
5S. Taniguchi
20R. Van Helden
60R. Vanwesemael
10I. Sebaoui
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
7A. Muja
9A. Ferrari
42Keisuke Goto
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
7I. Camara
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Anderlecht · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–3 H | W 5–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| Dender | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Gent | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 St. Truiden wins0 draws2 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 18 Feb 2024Anderlecht4–1St. Truiden
- 13 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.40 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| St. Truiden | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.40 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.40 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.20 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| St. Truiden | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.38 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.90 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.59league 3.89
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+52%league 44%
Fouls22.5league 23.1
Penalties0.44league 0.31
Home wins44%league 41%
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D29 Aug 25A · Cercle Brugge1–11
- L16 Dec 23A · RWDM0–32
- D10 Nov 23A · KVC Westerlo3–32
- D1 Oct 23A · Club Brugge KV1–11
Anderlecht4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W23 Sep 25H · Gent1–03
- W9 Mar 24A · RWDM3–01
- W4 Feb 24H · Gent1–01
- W7 Oct 23H · KV Mechelen3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
