St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
St. Truiden
3rd · 54 pts · 27 played
LWWWL
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
Cercle Brugge
13th · 28 pts · 27 played
LWLWD
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 26). St. Truiden had 8 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
St. Truiden54%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge21%
St. Truiden54%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge21%
St. Truiden54%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge21%
St. Truiden47%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge27%
St. Truiden54%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge21%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 17
Team strength
St. TruidenCercle Brugge
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
37
AttackIn forecast
24
32
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenCercle Brugge
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
81%
Scored inContext
74%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
14.04
ShotsContext
12.63
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.32
32%
On target shareContext
32%
9.23
Shots in the boxContext
9.35
65%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.88
11.41
Shots allowedContext
13.59
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.32
BlocksContext
3.35
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
73%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
447
PassesContext
350
367
Accurate passesContext
264
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.33
FoulsContext
10.59
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
12.52
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.70
ShotsContext
12.20
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
59%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.30
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.30
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
71%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
463
PassesContext
293
378
Accurate passesContext
207
82%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.30
FoulsContext
10.70
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
4L. Mbe Soh
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
13R. Ito
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
42Keisuke Goto
7A. Muja
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
12Valy Konaté
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
18P. Gerkens
28H. Van der Bruggen
6L. Agyekum
17O. Adewumi
13D. Vanzeir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
2.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-3
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.15
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.54points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-3
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A |
| Dender | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–0 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–3 AL 2–3 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Gent | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 AL 2–4 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 53 of 78 · 2.04 per game | 27 of 78 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 St. Truiden wins1 draws2 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 29 Aug 2025Cercle Brugge1–1St. Truiden
- 4 Feb 2024Cercle Brugge4–1St. Truiden
- 27 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–2Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 59% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 26% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| St. Truiden | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.54 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 5.19 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.92 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 18/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 17/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 13/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.85 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 16/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 8/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| St. Truiden | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.40 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.70 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.12league 3.86
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls21.9league 22.7
Penalties0.18league 0.31
Home wins35%league 40%
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L31 Jan 26H · Charleroi0–23
- W23 Nov 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- W17 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière2–11
Cercle Brugge2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 25H · Standard Liege1–20
- D21 Sep 25A · KV Mechelen0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden27 games · scored 44 · conceded 30
4
2
0-15
8
7
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
5
46-60
6
7
61-75
13
4
76-90
Cercle Brugge27 games · scored 34 · conceded 40
4
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
13
10
31-45
3
10
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
