St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 22). St. Truiden had 15.9 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 15 and had to travel.
Rest days15.9 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
St. Truiden52%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo23%
St. Truiden51%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo24%
St. Truiden52%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo23%
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo29%
St. Truiden51%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo24%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 28
Team strength
St. Truiden
KVC Westerlo
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
37
AttackIn forecast
42
32
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenKVC Westerlo
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
80%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.83
ShotsContext
16.40
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
32%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
69%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.75
OffsidesContext
—
8.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.50
BlocksContext
4.00
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
77%
Save rateContext
59%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
441
PassesContext
364
358
Accurate passesContext
288
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.17
FoulsContext
12.80
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.80
ShotsContext
15.40
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
29%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
58%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.70
BlocksContext
3.78
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
77%
Save rateContext
55%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
493
PassesContext
396
410
Accurate passesContext
318
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.30
FoulsContext
11.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 15Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
18G. Yow
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 4.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 St. Truiden wins1 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 24 Feb 2024St. Truiden1–0KVC Westerlo
- 10 Nov 2023KVC Westerlo3–3St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.83 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 10.40 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.20 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.30 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.73
Red cards0.29league 0.25
Cards 5+39%league 40%
Fouls22.2league 23.0
Penalties0.14league 0.38
Home wins50%league 46%
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 Feb 24A · Anderlecht1–41
- L27 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–21
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Mar 24H · Charleroi0–11
- D23 Dec 23A · Antwerp2–21
- L25 Nov 23A · Charleroi2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
KVC Westerlo5 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
