St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
St. Truiden51.7%fair odds 1.94
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.96
KVC Westerlo23.1%fair odds 4.33
Expected goals1.70 – 1.06total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| St. Truiden ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are St. Truiden goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.33
- 1–010.1%9.88
- 2–19.7%10.32
- 2–09.1%10.97
- 0–06.9%14.47
- 0–16.1%16.38
- 1–26.1%16.49
- 3–15.5%18.21
- 3–05.2%19.36
- 2–25.2%19.40
Winning margin
12.4%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 8.04
16.0%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 6.25
23.2%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 4.31
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.96
14.3%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 7.00
6.3%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 15.96
2.5%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 39.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
St. Truiden goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
35%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 51.7% | 51.0% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.5% | -0.2 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 23.1% | 23.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 51.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 53.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 1.70 | 1.68 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.06 | 1.07 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- St. Truiden win51.7%1.94
- Draw25.2%3.96
- KVC Westerlo win23.1%4.33
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw76.9%1.30
- Double chance St. Truiden or KVC Westerlo74.8%1.34
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw48.3%2.07
- Draw no bet St. Truiden69.1%1.45
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo30.9%3.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.92
- Over 3.530.0%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.82
- Under 1.523.1%4.32
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.570.0%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.542.1%2.37
- St. Truiden win and yes24.0%4.16
- Draw and yes18.3%5.46
- KVC Westerlo win and yes11.7%8.51
Team goals
- St. Truiden over 0.581.7%1.22
- St. Truiden over 1.550.7%1.97
- St. Truiden over 2.524.3%4.12
- KVC Westerlo over 0.565.5%1.53
- KVC Westerlo over 1.528.8%3.48
- KVC Westerlo over 2.59.2%10.83
- St. Truiden clean sheet34.5%2.90
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet18.3%5.47
- St. Truiden win to nil27.6%3.62
- KVC Westerlo win to nil11.4%8.80
Handicap
- St. Truiden −1.528.4%3.52
- St. Truiden −2.512.4%8.04
- KVC Westerlo +1.571.6%1.40
- KVC Westerlo +2.587.6%1.14
- KVC Westerlo −1.58.8%11.35
- St. Truiden +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored52
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result37.9%
1X2 Brier0.612
Over 2.5 called right55.8%
BTTS called right55.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.8% | 22.2% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 44.9% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.3% | 88.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 14 of 52 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6296 | 0.6410 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.7% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 42.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 14 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 52 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.