Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Jan 18 · 18:15 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 3rd · 39 pts · 20 played
First leg2–1 1–0Full time
OH Leuven 15th · 20 pts · 20 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

St. Truiden were slight favourites.

St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 21). St. Truiden had 23 days of rest, OH Leuven 22.1 and had to travel.

Rest days23 · 22.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
St. Truiden56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Expected goals 1.80 – 0.98
St. Truiden56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99
St. Truiden56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Expected goals 1.80 – 0.98
St. Truiden49%
Draw26%
OH Leuven25%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.10
St. Truiden56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99
Over 2.5 53% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)

No weather data yet

RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.29
  • Matches 7

Team strength

St. TruidenOH Leuven
37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
37 AttackIn forecast 17
32 DefenceIn forecast 30
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenOH Leuven
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.95
1.15 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.45
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.05
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
85% Scored inContext 70%
25% Clean sheetsContext 25%
13.60 ShotsContext 12.50
4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.42
31% On target shareContext 34%
9.26 Shots in the boxContext 8.11
67% Box shareContext 65%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.88 OffsidesContext 1.68
11.35 Shots allowedContext 11.85
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
3.17 BlocksContext 2.84
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.37
73% Save rateContext 70%
53% PossessionIn forecast 45%
443 PassesContext 335
366 Accurate passesContext 259
83% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.73
12.15 FoulsContext 15.90
10.65 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
1.85 Yellow cardsContext 2.95
0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.17
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
90% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.00 ShotsContext 13.40
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
31% On target shareContext 35%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.90
66% Box shareContext 60%
12% ConversionContext 8%
2.56 OffsidesContext 1.33
11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.13 BlocksContext 2.70
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
72% Save rateContext 79%
55% PossessionIn forecast 45%
465 PassesContext 333
391 Accurate passesContext 258
84% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.91 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.60 FoulsContext 15.20
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest23 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
OH Leuven
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match23Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec22.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one5.96.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
60R. Vanwesemael 26V. Musliu 5S. Taniguchi 20R. Van Helden
6R. Yamamoto 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 13R. Ito 7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
OH Leuven Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1T. Leysen(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 28E. Pletinckx
7T. Verlinden 6W. George 4B. Verstraete 27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz 33M. Maertens
39S. Kaba

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 2.20points per game · 10 home games
W-D-L
7-1-2
Scored
1.60
Conceded
1.10
OH Leuven · Away 1.10points per game · 10 away games
W-D-L
3-2-5
Scored
0.70
Conceded
1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenOH Leuven
Standard Liege W 2–1 AW 1–0 H W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
KV Mechelen W 1–0 HW 3–1 A D 1–1 A
Anderlecht L 1–2 AD 2–2 H D 1–1 H
Club Brugge KV W 3–2 HL 0–2 A L 0–1 H
Gent W 2–1 AW 3–1 H W 4–0 H
Antwerp W 1–0 H L 1–3 A
Union St. Gilloise L 0–2 A L 0–5 A
Genk L 1–2 H L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
KVC Westerlo L 0–3 H L 0–2 A
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 A L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 A D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 H D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Dender W 2–0 H W 1–0 A
Charleroi D 1–1 A D 2–2 H
Points36 of 57 · 1.89 per game20 of 57 · 1.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 St. Truiden wins1 draws1 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%
  • 23 Nov 2025OH Leuven1–2St. Truiden
  • 9 Dec 2023St. Truiden1–1OH Leuven
  • 22 Oct 2023OH Leuven4–0St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.500.95
Conceded per game 1.151.45
Match goals 2.652.40 2.78
Over 1.5 85%75%
Over 2.5 55%45% 53%
Over 3.5 20%20%
Both teams scored 60%50% 53%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 15%30%
Games2020
St. TruidenOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.501.10
Conceded per game 1.101.00
Match goals 2.602.10 2.78
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 60%40% 53%
Over 3.5 20%10%
Both teams scored 60%50% 53%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.584.58
Corners conceded4.325.32
Match total9.909.909.70
Over 8.568% 13/1958% 11/19
Over 9.563% 12/1953% 10/19
Over 10.542% 8/1947% 9/19
Cards
Cards1.903.00
Opponent cards2.152.30
Match total4.055.304.04
Over 3.555% 11/2080% 16/20
Over 4.525% 5/2055% 11/20
St. TruidenOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.904.67
Corners conceded5.106.22
Match total10.0010.899.70
Over 8.570% 7/1067% 6/9
Over 9.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.102.80
Opponent cards2.102.10
Match total4.204.904.04
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 3.81
Red cards0.57league 0.19
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls23.1league 22.9
Penalties0.29league 0.29
Home wins43%league 42%
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • W8 Aug 25H · Dender2–03
OH Leuven1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W12 Dec 25A · Standard Liege1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

St. Truiden20 games · scored 30 · conceded 23
2 1 0-15
7 5 16-30
4 5 31-45
4 3 46-60
4 6 61-75
9 3 76-90
OH Leuven20 games · scored 19 · conceded 29
3 5 0-15
6 16-30
4 5 31-45
1 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 7 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
3 1 31-45
3 46-60
2 4 61-75
2 1 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Club Brugge KV RAAL La Louvière 23 Zulte Waregem Genk 21 KVC Westerlo Cercle Brugge 02 Union St. Gilloise KV Mechelen 10 Gent Anderlecht 42 Dender Antwerp 10 Charleroi Standard Liege 20 St. Truiden OH Leuven 10