Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 9 · 15:00 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 4th · 21 pts · 13 played
1–0Full time
Standard Liege 11th · 17 pts · 13 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

St. Truiden were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden had 6.9 days of rest, Standard Liege 8.8 and had to travel.

Rest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
St. Truiden45%
Draw27%
Standard Liege28%
Expected goals 1.51 – 1.15
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
Standard Liege29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18
St. Truiden45%
Draw27%
Standard Liege28%
Expected goals 1.51 – 1.15
St. Truiden38%
Draw27%
Standard Liege35%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.29
St. Truiden44%
Draw27%
Standard Liege29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18
Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)

No weather data yet

RefereeNicolas Laforge
  • Cards per match 4.6
  • Penalties per match 0.41
  • Matches 29

Team strength

St. TruidenStandard Liege
29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
37 AttackIn forecast 29
32 DefenceIn forecast 29
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenStandard Liege
1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
1.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.97
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37
-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.03
77% Scored inContext 62%
23% Clean sheetsContext 23%
14.69 ShotsContext 9.92
4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38
31% On target shareContext 34%
9.69 Shots in the boxContext 6.38
67% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 10%
3.09 OffsidesContext 2.50
10.69 Shots allowedContext 14.77
4.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.85
3.08 BlocksContext 4.15
2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.46
72% Save rateContext 71%
54% PossessionIn forecast 44%
428 PassesContext 357
350 Accurate passesContext 278
82% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.82
12.77 FoulsContext 10.77
11.08 Fouls sufferedContext 12.23
1.69 Yellow cardsContext 2.31
0.08 Red cardsContext 0.15
This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.78
1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
70% Scored inContext 50%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.90 ShotsContext 10.40
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90
32% On target shareContext 28%
9.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.80
65% Box shareContext 65%
8% ConversionContext 8%
3.11 OffsidesContext 2.57
11.70 Shots allowedContext 15.00
4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
2.70 BlocksContext 3.80
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
72% Save rateContext 69%
54% PossessionIn forecast 45%
426 PassesContext 355
350 Accurate passesContext 274
82% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.10 FoulsContext 10.70
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Standard Liege
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden Standard Liege
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Nov8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one14.112.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød 5S. Taniguchi 20R. Van Helden 3T. Hata
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 13R. Ito 7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Standard Liege Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr 24J. Homawoo 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko
6H. Sahabo 27Mo El Hankouri
17R. Saïd 10D. Eckert Ayensa 11A. Abid
9T. Henry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Standard Liege+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games
W-D-L
4-1-2
Scored
1.57
Conceded
1.29
Standard Liege · Away 1.00points per game · 6 away games
W-D-L
2-0-4
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenStandard Liege
Antwerp W 1–0 H W 1–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–2 A L 0–3 A
Anderlecht D 2–2 H L 0–1 A
KV Mechelen W 3–1 A D 1–1 H
Genk L 1–2 H W 2–1 H
Club Brugge KV L 0–2 A L 1–2 H
KVC Westerlo L 0–3 H W 2–0 A
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 A L 0–3 H
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 H W 2–0 A
Dender W 2–0 H D 1–1 H
Charleroi D 1–1 A W 3–1 H
Gent W 3–1 H L 0–4 A
Points18 of 36 · 1.50 per game17 of 36 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 St. Truiden wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 27 Dec 2023Standard Liege1–1St. Truiden
  • 30 Jul 2023St. Truiden1–0Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 1.381.00
Conceded per game 1.231.38
Match goals 2.622.38 2.67
Over 1.5 92%77%
Over 2.5 46%46% 50%
Over 3.5 23%15%
Both teams scored 54%38% 54%
Clean sheets 23%23%
Failed to score 23%38%
Games1313
St. TruidenStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 1.200.80
Conceded per game 1.401.60
Match goals 2.602.40 2.67
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 50%50% 50%
Over 3.5 20%20%
Both teams scored 50%30% 54%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 30%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won6.174.08
Corners conceded3.835.38
Match total10.009.469.52
Over 8.575% 9/1246% 6/13
Over 9.567% 8/1231% 4/13
Over 10.550% 6/1223% 3/13
Cards
Cards1.772.62
Opponent cards2.152.08
Match total3.924.704.08
Over 3.546% 6/1377% 10/13
Over 4.523% 3/1362% 8/13
St. TruidenStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won6.564.50
Corners conceded4.115.70
Match total10.6710.209.52
Over 8.589% 8/960% 6/10
Over 9.578% 7/940% 4/10
Over 10.567% 6/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.802.80
Opponent cards2.102.00
Match total3.904.804.08
Over 3.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nicolas Laforge 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.48league 3.86
Red cards0.14league 0.21
Cards 5+48%league 41%
Fouls22.6league 23.1
Penalties0.41league 0.28
Home wins41%league 45%
St. Truiden5 with this referee
Record0-4-1 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • D19 Oct 25H · Anderlecht2–21
  • D29 Aug 25A · Cercle Brugge1–11
  • L16 Dec 23A · RWDM0–32
  • D10 Nov 23A · KVC Westerlo3–32
  • D1 Oct 23A · Club Brugge KV1–11
Standard Liege4 with this referee
Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1
  • D12 Sep 25H · KV Mechelen1–13
  • L25 Feb 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–23
  • L29 Oct 23A · Gent1–32
  • D13 Aug 23A · Charleroi1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

St. Truiden13 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1 1 0-15
5 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 3 76-90
Standard Liege13 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
3 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 61-75
3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Dender Zulte Waregem 22 Cercle Brugge OH Leuven 12 Charleroi KVC Westerlo 20 Antwerp RAAL La Louvière 31 Anderlecht Club Brugge KV 10 St. Truiden Standard Liege 10 Gent Genk 11 KV Mechelen Union St. Gilloise 11